Eastern PA College Baseball Prospects

It's nearly that time of year.  Baseball time.  Opening Day is April 4th with minor league games starting shortly thereafter.  That means you're still nearly two months away from meaningful ball.  Luckily, you have me to clue you in on some watchable stuff in the meantime.  What I have here is a schedule of all the notable college prospects within reasonable driving distance of Eastern Pennsylvania.  It's a small geographical area and this post isn't likely to net me hundreds of page views, but I made this schedule for myself as I look to get better at evaluating amateur prospects (vastly different than looking at minor leaguers) and figured it was worth sharing for anyone looking to do something similar.  Here's stuff you should know about this schedule:

- Be sure to check out the college's athletics webpage a few days prior to attending these games.  Game times change all the time due to weather or any number of external factors.  You don't want to drive for two hours and learn that the game you planned on seeing is already half over because they moved the start time up to avoid a potential rain shower.

- The "DH" after the time denotes a double header.

- The number preceding the player's name indicates their ranking as a prospect in their conference, according to Baseball America. So, Kyle Hansen is the #3 prospect in the Big East.

- If you're trying to look at a pitcher, make sure you're checking box scores to see what day of the week he's pitching.  Th team's best pitcher is likely to throw on Friday nights, but team's with weird schedules and multiple pitching prospects might have an anomalous rotation.

- Moravian pitcher Brendan Close belongs on this schedule, but I live so close to campus that I can scoot over there any time I want to.  I don't have a set date to see him for that reason. I'll get to him when I have time.  The same can be said for Joe Wendle.

Date		Game	Time	Players
1-Mar		West Chester at Chestnut Hill	3:00pm	Joe Wendle, 2b, West Chester
9-Mar		Iona at St. Joe's	3:00pm	4. Chris Burke, 3b, Iona
10-Mar		Iona at Villanova	1:00pm	4. Chris Burke, 3b, Iona
11-Mar		Iona at Temple	12:00pm	4. Chris Burke, 3b, Iona
17-Mar		Iona at Lehigh	12:00pm DH	4. Chris Burke, 3b, Iona
18-Mar		Iona at Lehigh	12:00pm DH	4. Chris Burke, 3b, Iona
23-Mar		St. John's at Villanova	3:00pm	3. Kyle Hansen, rhp, St. John's
				2. Jeremy Baltz, of, St. John's
				11. Matt Wessinger, ss/2b, St. John's
24-Mar		Bucknell at St. Joe's	12:00pm DH	2. Taylor Runge, rhp, Bucknell
		St. John's at Villanova	1:00pm	4. Matt Carasiti, rhp, St. John's
				11. Matt Wessinger, ss/2b, St. John's
25-Mar		Bucknell at St. Joe's	1:00pm	5. Ryan Ebner, lhp, Bucknell
		St. John's at Villanova	12:00pm	2. Jeremy Baltz, of, St. John's
				11. Matt Wessinger, ss/2b, St. John's
30-Mar		Rhode Island at St. Joe's	3:00pm	2. Mike LeBel, ss/rhp, Rhode Island
		Richmond at LaSalle	3:00pm	4. Adam McConnell, ss/3b, Richmond
		Monmouth at Temple	12:00pm	1. Pat Light, rhp, Monmouth
				5. Dan Smith, lhp, Monmouth
31-Mar		Rhode Island at St. Joe's	1:00pm	2. Mike LeBel, ss/rhp, Rhode Island
		Richmond at LaSalle	1:00pm	4. Adam McConnell, ss/3b, Richmond
1-Apr		Rhode Island at St. Joe's	12:00pm	3. Chris Pickering, lhp, Rhode Island
		Richmond at LaSalle	1:30pm	4. Adam McConnell, ss/3b, Richmond
		Harvard at Princeton	12:00pm DH	1. Matt Bowman, ss/rhp, Princeton
				2. Sam Mulroy, c/of, Princeton
				3. Brent Suter, lhp, Harvard
				4. Michael Fagan, lhp, Princeton (2013)
5-Apr		Notre Dame at Seton Hall	1:00pm	8. Ryan Harvey, rhp, Seton Hall
6-Apr		Notre Dame at Seton Hall	4:00pm	13. Trey Mancini, 1b, Notre Dame (2013)
7-Apr		Notre Dame at Seton Hall	1:00pm	13. Trey Mancini, 1b, Notre Dame (2013)
13-Apr		Charlotte at Temple	3:00pm	1. Tyler Barnette, rhp, Charlotte (2013)
		Georgetown at Villanova	TBA	10. Rand Ravnaas, of, Georgetown
14-Apr		Charlotte at Temple	3:00pm	5. Andrew Smith, rhp, Charlotte
		Georgetown at Villanova	TBA	10. Rand Ravnaas, of, Georgetown
15-Apr		Charlotte at Temple	1:00pm	5. Andrew Smith, rhp, Charlotte
		Georgetown at Villanova	12:00pm	10. Rand Ravnaas, of, Georgetown
20-Apr		Richmond at Temple	3:00pm	4. Adam McConnell, ss/3b, Richmond
21-Apr		Richmond at Temple	1:00pm	4. Adam McConnell, ss/3b, Richmond
		Holy Cross at Lehigh	12:00 DH	1. Mike Ahmed, 3b/rhp, Holy Cross (2013)
		Navy at Lafayette	12:00pm DH	3. Alex Azor, of, Navy
22-Apr		Richmond at Temple	1:00pm	4. Adam McConnell, ss/3b, Richmond
		Holy Cross at Lehigh	12:00 DH	1. Mike Ahmed, 3b/rhp, Holy Cross (2013)
		Navy at Lafayette	12:00pm DH	4. Ben Nelson, rhp, Navy
27-Apr		Colombia at Penn	12:00pm DH	5. Pat Lowery, rhp, Columbia
28-Apr		Bucknell at Lafayette	12:00pm DH	2. Taylor Runge, rhp, Bucknell
29-Apr		Bucknell at Lafayette	12:00pm DH	5. Ryan Ebner, lhp, Bucknell
8-May		Monmouth at Seton Hall	3:00pm	8. Ryan Harvey, rhp, Seton Hall
				1. Pat Light, rhp, Monmouth
				5. Dan Smith, lhp, Monmouth
17-May		Rhode Island at Temple	2:00pm	2. Mike LeBel, ss/rhp, Rhode Island
18-May		Rhode Island at Temple	2:00pm	2. Mike LeBel, ss/rhp, Rhode Island
19-May		Rhode Island at Temple	1:00pm	3. Chris Pickering, lhp, Rhode Island

Blockbuster Prognostication: Jesus Montero

In my first assignment for The Cut-Off Man, I’m breaking down the principles in arguably this off-season’s biggest trade, the swap that sent Michael Pineda from Seattle to New York for Jesus Montero.  Part one can be found HERE.  In part two, we look at Jesus Montero.

You’ve probably seen Montero on prospect lists before, and he’s probably been listed as a catcher.  Take a minute to meditate now and accept that Montero is not a catcher.  I realize that moving Montero out from behind the plate decimates his value as a major league player, so let me explain why this positional change is absolutely necessary.  Montero is a massive, lumbering human being.  He does not possess the athleticism required to crouch behind the plate and pounce on sliders in the dirt.  Montero’s receiving skills leave plenty to be desired.  When I say his receiving skills are poor, I’m not just talking about framing pitches and other little nuances at which you’d like to see catchers excel.  I’m talking about the trouble Montero has actually catching the baseball.  He struggles just to hold on to the ball a few times a game.  You can’t have that.  There is some arm there, but Montero’s transfer is so slow that his pop times play down as below average.  Allowing Montero to catch also makes it more likely he gets injured.  It’s just a senseless decision the Mariners would do well to avoid altogether.  Stick a bat in his hand and let him go.

The good news is that Montero’s bat is so sexy, it’s not going to matter.  He’s been the best pure hitter in the minors for the past two years with great bat speed and even better eye hand coordination.  He’s actually more of a finished product than Pineda despite the fact that Pineda’s had more run at the Major League level.  But while Montero is as close to seasoned as hitters get, there’s still a little room for improvement and still a chance things can go wrong.

In order for Montero to improve he needs to be more consistent at the plate.  No, I don’t mean he needs to produce on a more consistent basis, I mean he needs to be more mechanically consistent.  Montero is constantly changing his batting stance (which doesn’t really matter) his hand placement at the time of pitch release (which does) and his footwork.  I don’t know whether or not Montero is consciously making these changes, but I do know such changes can screw with a hitter’s rhythm and timing.  This spring, watch Montero’s weight displacement.  If it seems as though most of his weight is one his front foot, he’s having these timing issues.  If he’s balanced, then Montero is in a groove.  The more balanced Montero is at the plate, the better off he’ll be, and the less noise we see with his pre-swing mechanics the more likely he is to be balanced.  An imbalanced Montero is a good hitter, a balanced Montero is a freakish monster.

One concern I have for Montero is his focus while the Mariners continue to build.  The Mariners are pretty bad.  Help is one the way, though, as players like Dustin Ackley, Nick Franklin, Kyle Seager, Taijuan Walker, Danny Hultzen and Fernando Martinez as well as others all look like legitimate prospects who will contribute to varying degrees.  Until those guys get to Seattle, the Mariners are going to be pretty bad.  Will Montero focus and work despite the fact that he has nothing to play for?  It’s not an unmerited question since Montero has underachieved before.  Last year the Yankees decided they’d rather have Jorge Posada’s corpse hitting everyday and left Montero at Triple-A Scranton to start the season.  Montero did exactly respond.  He posted pedestrian OBPs to start 2011, hitting rock bottom in June with a .667 OPS.  He was sulking, angry he had been left behind in the minors where it was clear he had nothing else to prove.  Will Montero look at the standings, see a giant gap between his Mariners and the Rangers or Angels and mail it in?   And if his apathy coincides with Seattle’s struggles, will two or three years of team mediocrity permanently derail Jesus’ development.  It’s a possibility.

Best case scenario: Montero stays motivated and gets himself in such good shape that not only is he more mechanically consistent at the plate but he can catch every once in a while.  He’s worth 6 to 7 Wins Above Replacement annually.

Worst Case Scenario: An apathetic Montero not only mails it in at the plate, but fails to keep himself in shape.  His poor conditioning means his decline phase begins earlier and he starts to slip involuntarily just as the Mariners start to get good.  Bye the time Seattle is really ready to contend, he’s a chubby disappointment.

Most Likely Scenario: Being in the majors is enough to keep Jesus motivated.  He doesn’t iron out his minor mechanical issues but he’s good enough to overcome them.  He’s not Edgar Martinez, but he has the career Erubiel Durazo should have had.

Blockbuster Prognostication

“How few there are who have courage enough to own their faults, or resolution enough to mend them” –Benjamin Franklin

Unfortunately for Major League General Managers, you’re often fired well before you have a chance to fix your own mistakes.  That’s why you can’t help but tip your cap to both Yankees GM Brian Cashman and Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik for collaborating on the ballsiest trade we’ve seen in a long time.  I’m referring, of course, to the trade that sent Michael Pineda and Jorge Campos from Seattle to the Bronx in exchange for Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi.  With apologies to Noesi and Campos, who certainly aren’t chumps, I’ll be focusing exclusively on Montero and Pineda in this two-part piece.    

Now before I talk at length about one of the principles in this trade, let’s stop for a second and make sure we’re aware of what each team gave up here.  Both teams traded an excellent player, an excellent young player, an excellent young player who still has room to improve.  On top of that, both players are under team control for the next handful of years, and mostly on the cheap if the front office plays their cards right. This trade also means each GM is walking the public relations tightrope for the next half dozen years.  Both teams’ fan bases know damn well what they’ve given up.  Yankees fans have been anticipating Montero’s stardom for years and Mariners fans tasted Pineda’s potential first hand last season.  There’s a lot at stake here.

 Most conjecture immediately following the trade was abnormally optimistic. “Oh boy! What a great trade for both teams!”  Don’t think for a second that this couldn’t possibly come back to bite either organization in the ass.  The last trade of this ilk sent Matt Garza from Minnesota to Tampa for Delmon Young.  Young was once Baseball America’s top prospect.  Now, he’s a replacement level hitter.  So while both Jesus Montero and Michael Pineda could become world beating All Stars, they might each turn out to be mediocre as well.  What can be done to optimize both players’ potential?  What potential stumbling blocks need to be identified and avoided so neither of these guys flames out?  These are questions both organizations need to ask themselves and ones that I am here to answer in this two part piece.  Up first?

 Michael Pineda

Pineda exceeded my expectations in 2011.  I didn’t think the change-up was ready to get left-handed hitters out.  Neither did he, evidently, as he only threw that changeup six percent of the time.  Instead, he survived almost exclusively on his mid-90s fastball and mid-80s slider, which he worked back door to lefties.  It worked just fine.  Pineda held lefties to a .234 batting average in 2011.  But if Pineda is going to fulfill his potential and become a frontline starter, that changeup will need to develop.  Hitters got hip to the two-pitch mix as the 2011 season went on and Pineda’s numbers became much more pedestrian later in the summer.  Undoubtedly, the Yankees are aware of the importance of the changeup’s development.  He’ll be throwing a ton of them this spring.  The best case scenario for Pineda is the changeup develops into an average or better pitch and he becomes at least a #2 starter.

The worst case scenario involves Pineda having an epic psychological meltdown when he inevitably struggles this season.  Believe me when I say that a statistical regression is coming in 2012.  Not only is Pineda moving from a pitcher friendly ballpark in Seattle to a drool inducing slugger’s paradise in the Bronx, but the advanced metrics show he was a tad lucky in 2011.  Pineda gave up a .258 batting average on balls in play last year, well below the league average of .300.  Think about everything working against the lofty expectations Yankee faithful surely have for Pineda this season: A full season’s worth of tape opposing hitters have on him, a move to a hitter friendly park, a  move to a division where Pineda will now face three solid offenses instead of two, and a statistical regression to the mean.  All that likely adds to up an ERA north of the 3.74 Pineda posted last year.  How he handles failure and the vitriol sent his way from the fans and media of the Big Apple when they perceive him to be doing so will be interesting to see.  It could make him stronger and more resilient.  It could also break him.

For Pineda:

Best Case Scenario: The changeup develops and he becomes a bona fide ace.

Worst Case Scenario: He struggles and becomes a basket case because he can’t handle the adversity.

Most Likely Scenario: The changeup comes along a bit but not all the way and Pineda is a nice #2/#3 starter for the next several years.