I Feel A Draft: The Importance of MLB's Amateur Draft

BY ERIC LONGENHAGEN Tonight is Major League Baseball’s Rule 4 Draft (there is also a Rule 5 Draft, but not a Rule 1, 2 or 3 Draft.  Weird, right?) and it’s not usually on the mind of many formal sports fans, let alone casual ones. Of the three major American sports, baseball’s draft is the least bandied about, while the NFL and NBA drafts are highly publicized and score big TV ratings.  I have some theories as to why it doesn’t register with the public:

1. We haven’t seen the players - College Football and Basketball are prominent entities in sports television.  We know the coaches and, more importantly, we know the players.  Tim Tebow is popular enough that he has an autobiography coming out this week; and he a) wasn’t even one of the top few picks in his draft, and b) he isn’t very good.  No such recognition for baseball’s best amateurs.  The lay person wouldn’t know Trevor Bauer from Jack Bauer, even though he’s having one of the best seasons a college pitcher has ever had.  There’s very little college baseball on TV and the public has no way of connecting with any of these guys like they do for basketball and football players.

Chase Utley during his days at UCLA, likely the birthplace of his love for Led Zeppelin.

2. We won’t see the players, for a while, anyway - Unlike the NFL and NBA where fans can be wearing a new draft pick’s jersey within a month of their selection and see them on the field almost immediately, baseball players can take years to develop, if they do at all.  Shane Victorino was drafted in 1999 and only saw regular playing time in the majors starting in 2006. Our attention spans don’t last 5 minutes, let alone… oh look a butterfly… Sorry, I’m back.  It’s an out of sight out of mind problem.  You can’t blame people for not getting into the draft when the results likely won’t impact their favorite team for 3 or 4 years.

3. MLB Marketing – MLB’s core fan base is aging.  There’s a reason Cialiscommercials are seen with great regularity during MLB broadcasts. Whether it’s inherent in the game of baseball (which is relatively unappealing to the ever shortening attention span of World youth) or something MLB’s marketing department is bringing upon themselves (MLB refuses to allow clips of their games anywhere online, which doesn’t really make sense when you’re trying to appeal to the Youtube generation) it’s obvious they don’t do a good enough job alerting people of the draft.

The sad thing is that the draft is easily the most important function the MLB front office performs.  Not only is it the lifeblood of  on-field success, but financial success as well.  Young players are under their team’s control for the first six years of their service in the majors. Their salaries start well below what they’d be worth on the open market. And they earn their franchise much more in revenue for the cost of employment.  Take Washington Nationals phenomenon Stephen Strasburg, for example.  Strasburg was drafted in 2009, signed a four-year, $15 miillion deal (one of the largest deals ever) and made his major league debut in 2010.  He made only 12 starts before getting injured but was already worth at least $10 million in revenue during that time (I’d love to tell you how that number is calculated, but you’re not ready for that yet).

Young players are also far more predictable.  Old veterans have injury problems and natural, age-induced regressions in performance.  Yet fan bases and front offices crave big name free agent signings that, more often than not, are abject failures.  Emphasis on the draft is a way for small market teams to compete and a way for big market teams to exact dominance.  One of the poorest teams in all of baseball, the Tampa Bay Rays, have made it a point to allocate serious funds toward the draft and as a result are competing with the Red Sox and Yankees, the Goliaths of the sport. Tampa has worked to acquire 12 of the first 90 picks in this year’s draft, which is loaded with talent.  Trust me: this is serious business.

MLB Draft Prospect Scouting Report: Larry Greene

The Phillies selected High School 1B/OF Larry Greene with the 39th pick in the draft.  He has more power than any high school player in the draft and is often compared to...wait for it....Ryan Howard.  He swings with all his might every chance he gets.  He has great bat speed and hip rotation which help him generate his power.  He also strikes out a lot, a problem which will not only continue but likely get worse before it bets better, because he hasn't seen a lot of good pitching yet.

Defensively, Greene is likely pigeonholed at first base because he has no arm and is slow footed.  The Phils' experiment with Jon Singleton in left field sets a precedent for them to do the same with Greene, though I doubt it will stick.  You probably won't hear Greene's name again for several years as I expect him to spend 2 full years in Rookie Ball in the Gulf Coast League.  He's that raw.

MLB Draft Live Blog

Tampa selects a guy I know little about at 32, Jake Hager, a high school SS who will likely need a new position in pro ball.  Hager has experience with wooden bats and apparently did well with them in front of scouts.  The Rays might just be taking Hager as a decoy pick that won't sign.  They'd get compensation for the pick in the first round next year if he doesn't.

MLB Draft Live Blog

I dig the Rays selection of Mikie Mahtook.  Mahtook will definitely stick in centerfield with a good arm, good instincts and great speed making him above average at a premium defensive position.  He'll likely just be average offensively, though his swing has some indications that he'll hit for power.  I don't like to do player comparisons but he reminds me of Drew Stubbs.  Mahtook will end up as a fan favorite in Tampa due to his incessant hustle and wreckless playing style.  He is Sam Fuld's successor in the PR department.

MLB Draft Live Blog

 A superior talent to the player taken right before him at the same position, Levi Michael is the Minnesota Twins pick at the back end of round 1.  He's a switch hitter who is patient and recognizes pitches well.  Combine that with great ability to make contact and his with plus speed and you have a potential leadoff guy here.  He's good enough to stick at SS, though he'd be plus at second base.  Great value pick for the Twins here.

MLB Draft Live Blog

The WOrld Champion Giants select St. John's shortstop Joe Panik with their first rounder.  This is also kind of a reach, but shortstops are like QBs, they go early.  Panik has the defensive skill set to stick at shortstop which makes him valuable already.  Quick reactions, soft hands and smooth footwork all help his cause. He might be able to hit a little bit as well.  The only way he doesn't stick at short is if his fringy arm moves him to second base, where I satill think he'll end up an above-replacement player.

MLB Draft Live Blog

The Braves add Florida State Lefty Sean Gilmartin with their first selection.  This is a reach.  He says he idolizes like Cole Hamels and his repertoire is just like Cole's: Average fastball (high 80s), lousy curveball, while his go-to pitch is his changeup (which is actually a pretty good pitch).  The problem here is, Cole was drafted right out of high school and was already in the majors when he was Gilmartin's age.  Gilmartin will either have to improve the curveball, pitch with plus command (like Cole did early in his career) or add velocity to his fastball or a new pitch altogether (like Cole has recently) if he wants to be Hollywood 2.0

MLB Draft Live Blog

The Reds select Robert Stephenson, a high schooler pitcher from Alhambra High School.  Stephenson is a lanky kid, 6'3" at just 180lbs.  Despite his skinny frame he pumps his fastball in at 93mph and scouts optimistic about Stephenson think he can add strength and velocity to his fastball as he fills out.  That 6'3" height allows him to pitch at a downhill plane, making it difficult for hitter to elevate the ball.  HE also throws a slow curveball and a changeup that he is still just learning.  Both of those secondary pitches need serious work, but Stephenson has time to work on them as the Reds are not hard up for pitching right now.

MLB Draft Live Blog

The Boston Red Sox select high school catcher Blake Swihart, a guy that will take several years to develop into a viable major league catcher.  He'll have tons of work to do behind the plate as a pro because he has spent time playing all sorts of positions as a high schooler.  Doing so will like detract from his focus on improving his hitting, which has a chance to be fantastic.  He has great bat speed and the hip rotation in his swing indicates the future development of at least above average power.  As long as the Sox are patient, they'll be patting themselves on the back around 2016.

MLB Draft Live Blog

With the 25th overall pick the Padres selected high school pitcher, Joe Ross.  He is the younger brother of Oakland A's pitcher and future major, arm repairing surgery subject, Tyson Ross.  Joe's delivery is much smoother than his older brother's and it helps him produce a low 90s fastball that could pick up some velocity if Joe puts some more muscle on his skinny 6-2, 180lb frame.  He has two secondary pitches, a slurvy breaking ball and a changeup that has flashed plus.  I like his chances to stick in a rotation as a #3 starter, which is more than we'll be able to say for 95% of players taken in this draft. 

MLB Draft Live Blog

Tampa Bay has a ton of picks thanks to the compensation system and they use their first one on high school righty Taylor Guerrieri.  Guerrieri has a fastball that tops out at 97mph with sink and a filthy slurve.  He has a solid frame and delivery that scouts project to hold up well under a 200+ inning workload in pro baseball.  He still needs to learn how to control those pitches as well as develop a third pitch.  Concerns about his makeup exist, but teenagers do stupid shit sometimes.

MLB Draft Live Blog

As a Phillies fan, I'm terrified of what the Nationals have done recently.  They add another potential star here in Alex Meyer who has electric stuff.  Meyer sports a mid 90s fastball that touches 98mph. His low, quirky arm slot generates nice armside run on the heater.  He backs that up with a nasty mid 80s slider that moves A LOT.  He ability to develop a third pitch will be the key to true stardom.  If not, he'll still be an elite reliever.  Ending up in the bullpen really hurts his value but it could be much worse.  Still awkward and lanky, Meyer has shot up to 6'9" and doesn't control his body (or his pitches) with maturity and grace.  He's goofy and still growing in to his body.  One other potential red flag is that Meyer has really only put it together this season, struggling his entire college career otherwise

MLB Draft Live Blog

The Cardinals add Kolten Wong, a second baseman from Hawaii.  Wong can really hit, but that's his only above average tool.  He's good enough defensively to stay at second, but a move to catcher would give him a nice boost in value.  He likely doesn't have enough arm for the position, but has tried it before.  Wong has drawn raves for his makeup but refused to try out for Team USA in 2010 after he sucked during tryouts in 2009, so how competitive can he be?

MLB Draft Live Blog

The Blue Jays have a ton of picks today and they use their first one on Tyler Beede.  Beede is committed to Vanderbilt, a commitment that most Vandy signs live up to.  I have serious doubts about Toronto's ability to get him.  Beede is a big project.  He doesn't have great raw stuff right now but has plenty of room to grow and work on his filth.  His fastball is in the low 90s at its best.  He has a sinker/two-seamer that he throws in the mid to upper 80s.  His secondary offerings consist of an archy mid 70s curve and a changeup that shows some promise.  Toronto has essentially drafted a lump of clay that they will have to mold into a big league pitcher.

MLB Draft Live Blog

The Rockies select Tyler Anderson, a pitcher from Oregon.  I'm not an Anderson fan.  All of his pitches are average or below.  He has a high 80s fastball, middling slider and curve and a changeup that he doesn't use.  He'll have to pitch with plus control and command to make it in the big leagues, unless the Rockies can tinker with his delivery and draw a better breaking ball out of him.  Last time the Rockies tinkered with someone's delivery, they ruined Tyler Matzek. So...

MLB Draft Live Blog

The Oakland A's select Vanderbilt righty Sonny Gray.  Gray is one of the more interesting guys in this draft.  His fastball sits in the low 90s when he starts but plays up when he comes out of the pen.  He has a nasty curveball but lacks a third pitch.  Reports have indicated that he's changed the grip on his changeup recently to a more "vulcan-like" grip that Roy Halladay and Tim Lincecum employ and the results have been good.  Gray is very small (5' 10") and has a violent delivery which, along with the lack of 3rd pitch) have many pegging him as a bullpen guy.  I am usually very conservative, even pessimistic, when it comes to evaluating pitchers, so I am in the camp that pegs him as a power reliever.  However, if I'm the A's, I'm letting him try his hand with this new changeup in my High-A roation next spring.

MLB Draft Live Blog

The Los Angeleeeees Angels select CJ Cron with their first round pick. Cron can really hit but has no defensive position.  He has a ton of power, especially when you consider the way the new college bats have harmed power numbers this year.  He's likely too big and slow to end up at first base, let alone catcher, and will have to seriously mash to get to the bigs as a bat alone.  I don't really like "all bat" picks, and I make no exception here.

MLB Draft Live Blog

I can't get over how Bud Selig says "Los Angeleees".  Cracks me up every time.  The DOdgers select Chris Reed, a pitcher from Stanford.  Stanford coaches are the bane of pro scouts' existence.  They tinker with talented players swing that sap away their power and they've done similar things with Reed, who has two above average pitches but was relegated to mere bullpen duty.  His fastball is just average but he has a sharp slider and a decent changeup that he throws for strikes.  He is a bit of a reach, but the Ddgers likely need to save some money since, you know....they don't have any.

MLB Draft Live Blog

The Brewers use their second first round pick on Georgia Tech lefty, Jed Bradley.  Bradley has an above average fastball that sits mostly in the 91-93mph range and a fine changeup that misses plenty of bats.  He also throws a slider, but it sucks.  He has no control over it and it isn't sharp.  Look for the Brewers to teach him a curveball of some sort once they get a hold of him since, as ESPN's Keith Law says, "his arm slot is conducive of a curveball."  He and Taylor Jungmann give the Brew Crew a decent first round haul.

MLB Draft Live Blog

The Marlins select High school pitcher Jose Fernandez.  Fernandez has a big arm, touching 97mph at times.  He back that up with two breaking balls, a mid 70s curve and a low 80s slider, the latter being the more devastating pitch.  Fernandez's release points on the breaking balls are inconsistent, which has led to shoddy control of both secondary pitches.  Unless he develops a pitch to get lefties out AND gets those secondary pitches under control, he'll end up as a reliever.  That is ultimately what I think will happen.  Look for him in a Marlins bullpen near you in a few years, as Fernandez is physically developed for a high schooler and will move quicker than others his age.