NFL Combine Thoughts: QBs, RBs and WRs

I had a chance to watch the QBs, RBs and WRs this weekend. Here are my thoughts on those young men.

QBS

Cam Newton- He sucked. If I’m a GM I’d already have him off of my draft board so it wouldn’t have mattered, but Newton was inaccurate all day missing receivers with more regularity than an Activia commercial. He’s a physical freak, but he didn’t look good throwing the ball and made excuses for his shittiness after he was done. EVERYONE had to throw to WRs they don’t have rapport with, Cam. Get over it. He’s a bust waiting to happen.

Ryan Mallett- Mallett looked really good today, but he’s another guy I’d stay away from. He struggles at games biggest moments and his mechanics deteriorate quickly under pressure. His release seems much quicker now than it was the rest of this year, which is good because it was Leftwich slow in games. His drug issues are probably overblown. If it’s just pot I wouldn’t care but if it’s anything heavier I’d stay away. So Mallett made himself money today but he wouldn’t get it from me. If you’re going to take a round 1 QB you have to KNOW they’re going to be good.

Blaine Gabbert- He wins the award for “best NASCAR driver name” in this year’s draft class. Gabbert didn’t throw, the only QB not to do so. He was trying to justify his absence at his presser and said, among other things, “I’m not shying away from competition.” Yes, Blaine, you are.

Jake Locker- 3rd or 4th rounder. I think he should play baseball. If you can’t tell, I’m down on this year’s QB class.

Colin Kaepernick- I really like Kaep Gun but he has serious issues with his delivery that need to be corrected if he wants to be an accurate NFL QB. His stock took a dip today, but if there’s one QB I’d draft, its him…as long as it’s the 5th round or later.

RBs

Mark Ingram- This dude is serious. Pre-40yd dash, Ingram was in a rubber sweat suit, rolling something on his thighs to loosen his muscles. He already had a full lather worked up, sweat running down his forehead. He looked focused and intense getting ready TO RUN A FORTY YARD DASH. He’s a monster, and the only RB in this year’s class I see making a significant impact in the NFL. One caveat here is his speed score. For those of you who don’t know, the Speed Score is a formula designed to measure a RB’s 40 time with his Weight. Since force=mass*acceleration, we have to understand that all 40 times are not created equally. It is much more impressive to run a 4.40 at 220lbs than at 195lbs. Typically, RBs with a speed score over 100 are good NFL backs. There are exceptions, of course, but it’s an interesting tool to use. Ingram’s speed score is only 94.

WRs

Julio Jones- Jones was great today. Physically impressive and faster than I thought he’d be (he ran a 4.40 40 at 220lbs) Jones may not fall to the Rams at #14 overall like many mock draftniks have thought thus far. The one drill he had trouble with was the Gauntlet, so maybe his hands aren’t great, but neither are Dwayne Bowe’s and that’s exactly who Jones reminds me of.

Jon Baldwin- I really need to sit and watch Baldwin’s tape. Reviews of him never seem to be good, yet he’s always an early 2nd rounder in these mock drafts. What the hell?

AJ Green- Outperformed by Jones today, Green is still the Best wideout in the draft and is very good at every aspect of his position, including route running, which is atypical of someone his age. Usually, players as physically gifted as Green don’t need to work on technical shit, they’re just gifted enough to coast on talent alone. Green doesn’t I like him and wouldn’t mind if the Panthers took him #1.

Jerrel Jernigan- I wrote a full report on Jernigan a while back, envisioning a nasty weapon to deploy in the slot. I even thought he could slip into the back end of round 1 if the right scenario presented itself. Then he ran his 40…..not even close to the 4.35 I thought he’d post. It’s not the end of the world. Davone Bess ran a 4.8 I think, and he’s one of my favorite NFL players. Sadly, Jernigan didn’t do well in the change of direction drills either. I have to re-evaluate him.

Now let’s talk about this graph. I have here a graph on which I spent a shit load of time. It shows the Height (Y Axis) and Body Mass Index (x Axis) of notable WRs from recent years. Notice that most of the successful ones fit into one of four areas of the graph. Calvin Johnson is an outlier, a freak unlike anything Earth has previously seen, so he’s not in a box. Also, Roddy White is smack in the middle of the whole thing and he’s really good, too. Some of this year’s rookies are highlighted in red. Just like the speed score, this isn’t gospel. It’s simply an interesting tool that I’d use to identify busts if I were a GM.

NFL Scouting Combine Thoughts: Offensive Linemen

I’m spending yet another nerdish afternoon watching large men in tight clothes run around in an empty arena. It’s the NFL scouting combine, and it tells you some things. The Offensive linemen are first.


First, a general thought. Why can’t we give these guys sweatshirts and sweatpants? They’re wearing bike shorts and tight sleeveless shirts. Sure, some of them carry 300+ pounds well, but others look like Larry the Cable Guy’s fat cousin, or a character in a shitty Tyler Perry movie. Also, when did it become mandatory for white linemen to have beards?

Alrighty, let’s talk about some guys. I’m not going to go into everyone, only 1 out of 6 of the participants in the combine will ever make any sort of impact in the league. It’s easy to tell who has it and who doesn’t at these things, and the athletes who belong in the NFL always pop off the screen. Now understand, just because a guy looks good at the Combine doesn’t mean he will be a good NFL player, so it isn’t a surefire way to FIND players, but it is a good way to eliminate players from consideration. If a guy can’t look good doing drills on his own, he sure as hell won’t look good with NFL players harassing him in actual games.

Joseph Barksdale 6’5” 305lbs LSU

I hadn’t given a moment of thought to Barksdale prior to the combine but he looks great in drills, especially the Kick Slide Drill from the Right Tackle side. Everything I’ve read on Barksdale says his main problem is his athleticism, but watching him move in space this morning has quieted those concerns in my mind. Keep an ear out for him on draft day.

Ryan Bartholomew 6’1” 302lbs Syracuse

Syracuse doesn’t send a ton of guys to the NFL but when they do, those players usually make an impact. Bart has worked out at center and I like what I see. The most important attributes I want to see in a Center are 1)Size 2)Strength 3)Intelligence 4)Long Arms 5)Straight Line Speed. Lateral quickness just isn’t as important for centers. Bartholomew hasn’t answered the bell in all other categories.

Marcus Cannon 6’5” 360lbs TCU

Cannon is huge and quick. Not quick enough to stick at tackle in the NFL, but he’ll be a starting guard in the NFL for years to come. The one concern I have are the reports about his football IQ. Apparently he has trouble reading blitz pickups and blocking assignments. I’m not sure if those reads get easier as you move inside (my gut and logic both say no) but with some good coaching he should be fine.

Derek Sherrod 6’5” 321lbs Mississippi State

Sherrod confuses me. Some drills he looks great, some he looks awful. Unfortunately for him, one of the drills he didn’t look so hot in is the one I consider most important for Tackle prospects, the Kick Slide Drill. Looking bad in that drill is a red flag for me with Sherrod’s one excuse possibly being the fact that coaches force prospects to start in a 3 point stance where in most obvious passing situations tackles would start in a 2 point stance. I’ll watch some film on Sherrod to make my opinion more concrete, but I’ve got the bust-o-meter on standby for him.

Gabe Carimi 6’7” 314lbs Wisconsin

Carimi looks great, I’m not worried about him at all and if your favorite team drafts him you should feel good about it. The one concern I have is his height. Leverage is important and Carimi’s center of gravity may be so high that stout, powerful Defensive ends may give him trouble (Elvis Dumervil, Trent Cole, guys like that).

Anthony Castonzo 6’7” 311lbs Boston College

Castonzo looks good, too. I’ve seen him on film and he looks alright most of the time, having trouble against elite rushers (Robert Quinn destroyed him in 2009). He reminds me of D’Brickishaw Ferguson, a lanky, wiry athlete who may need to gain weight and strength. I think he’ll be an average starting Left Tackle in the NFL, with most of his value coming from his pass blocking skills.

Rodney Hudson 6’2” 300lbs Florida State

Hudson, a guard, jumped off the screen today, another guy I knew nothing about when I went to bed last night. Obviously I’ll try to find some Seminole game film before I say this definitively, but I think Hudson can help a team inside right now. In the Down-block Twist drill, Hudson delivered the most violent strike of the pad that I saw all day. He’s a fine athlete and I’d hate to be in his way on screen and sweeps. I’d LOVE for my Panthers to grab him in round 3.

Ben Ijalana 6’4” 317lbs Villanova

I’m not sure if I missed him or if Ijalana didn’t work out but I didn’t see him at all. I’ll look into and update this if I need to , but I wrote a full on report on Ijalana in the fall, and you should read it.

Mike Pouncey 6’5” 303lbs Florida

If you follow any of this stuff you already know Pouncey is a sure thing and the best interior lineman in this draft class. I don’t think he’s better than his brother, who came out last year, but he’s going to be good. It’ll be interesting to see where he goes in the first round. He’s one of the top 15 players in the draft, but teams generally don’t like to use picks that high on Guards or Centers.

Will Rackley 6’3” 309lbs Lehigh

Rackley looked very good today, especially in the Mirror Drill where he showed high intelligence as he focused on moving with his opponent’s chest, not head. He looked calm and smooth for that drill. I want to see what his 10 yard split was in the 40yd dash. One of the concerns I had for Rackley watching his film was his ability to explode off the snap. A good 10 yard split would quell my concerns a bit.

NFL Draft Prospect Scouting Report: Will Rackley

Will Rackley


Position: Guard/Tackle

School: Lehigh

Height: 6’4”

Weight: 310lbs

Before you read this scouting report you have to know, I’m really rooting for Will Rackley. I want him to be a good NFL player. I’ve always had irrationally high hopes for small school guys (Jahri Evans, Jacoby Jones, Lawrence Sidbury, etc.) and Rackley is also a local guy so I’m doubly stoked on him. I like local, small school guys so much that when Corey Huerta declares for the NBA draft after his senior season I’ll probably write a full page scouting report detailing why he should be a lottery pick. I’m a sucker for underdogs. That said, I’ll do my best to stay as objective as possible here.

Run Blocking: Rackley is not particularly fast off of the ball but he’s not too slow either. He is strong and plays with good leverage, rarely getting pushed back by opposing linemen. He places his hands well and is swift in hunting down second level defenders that are straight ahead of him. The general consensus with Rackley is that he’ll move to guard in the pros so we’ll have to wait until he does some combine drills where he’s moving in space to get a full gauge on his athleticism when it comes to things like pulling and kicking out. Another problem with judging run blocking for Rackley is sample size. Other than seeing him in person once, the only film I have on him is the East West Shrine game. He played most of the second half and the East only ran the ball a few times, and some of those were draw plays. In the small sample I saw he looks good but ideally I’d like to see more.

Pass Blocking: Stands straight up coming off the ball instead of exploding at a 45 degree angle into his kick slide. This is the primary reason he has no chance at sticking at tackle in the pros. It takes him too long before he gets a-kickin’ and even once he does he is too slow to stay in front of anyone. You can see it in the video below. In the NFL, on obvious passing downs, Rackley will be able to start plays in a two point stance, already in the upright position he loses time getting into post-snap. But his feet are still too slow to play on the outside.

Other Stuff: Rackley isn’t slapped together like Michael Oher or Joe Thomas. Don’t get me wrong he’s got the physical presence to play on Sundays, and he’ll likely improve upon his physique once he has access to an NFL weight room, but right now he’s got room to improve. I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention the lack of elite competition Rackley has faced, so growing pains are inevitable at first.

My Prediction: Rackley will be a late round pick in the 5th-7th rounds, a raw prospect with potential to be an above average starter at guard one day. I think he’ll spend the prime of his career as a decent starter (think Deuce Lutui) and the time before and after that as a primary backup interior lineman. It’d be cool to see him work at center eventually, versatility is always nice. I also think there’s more than a 1 in 32 chance the Eagles take him which increases his potential thanks to the excellent coaching he’ll receive from Howard Mudd (and I’m sure Juan Castillo will still feel free to give suggestions). No matter what, I’m rooting for Will Rackley.

NFL Draft Prospect Scouting Report: Da'Quan Bowers

Da’Quan Bowers


Position: Defensive End

School: Clemson

Height: 6’4”

Weight: 280lbs



Bowers sits atop many an “expert” draft board. He has the prototypical size, speed and athletic ability you look for in a dominant pass rusher. I don’t have to tell you how important it is to put pressure on the QB in today’s NFL. You know stud D-ends come at a premium, so it wouldn’t surprise me if Bowers came off the board in the top 5. In fact, he may go #1. Last time the Carolina Panthers were this bad, they began their rebuilding process by selecting a defensive end with similar physical characteristics from a local school (Julius Peppers), and two years later they were in the Super Bowl. Caveat emptor, Carolina.

Pass Rushing Ability: Bowers has great straight line speed, especially for a 280lb guy, but he has no moves. One can watch the entire video below and he does nothing more than bull rush the opposing blockers to no avail. If he’s not strong enough to run through Olinemen in college, he won’t do it in the NFL. He doesn’t even try to blow by anyone up field. Florida State felt comfortable blocking him 1 on 1 with a Tight End several times and he never got off the block. His sack in this game came on an O-line miscommunication when Clemson showed a rare 3 down lineman look and brought a strong side overload blitz. As far as being a 1 on 1 pass rushing 4-3 end, I don’t think Bowers can do it at the next level unless he receives some serious coaching. I’ll get into what I think he can succeed at later.

Against the Run: Bowers is strong enough that lineman don’t blow him off the line but he’s not strong enough to shed blocks by throwing blockers to the side. On toss sweeps to his side, Bowers does a good job of moving laterally, forcing the runningback to continue running toward the sideline and preventing him from getting actual yardage while other defenders swarm to the ball. His speed makes him good in backside pursuit but in order to pursue from the back side Bowers would need to break contain which makes the defense susceptible to end-arounds and bootlegs. I don’t see Bowers as a liability against the run, but I don’t see him as much of an asset, either.

Other: Has missed some time due to injury but none due to off the field stupidity. Clemson used him at both ends of the line and even kicked him inside to defensive tackle in obvious passing situations. I think Bowers could excel in the NFL as a strong side 3-4 outside linebacker. He can use his quick first step and speed to get up-field and force the offensive tackle to follow him there and then use his strength to rip back underneath the now off balance lineman. He’s good enough against the run to hold up there as well. Of course, we’ll have to wait for the combine or pro day to see if Bowers is comfortable in a two point stance and whether or not he can back pedal and cover tight ends. As a Panthers fan, I’d be very upset if they took Bowers #1. I’m not buying it, and while I’m in the minority, I’m comfortable with my assessment.

NFL Draft Prospect Scouting Report: Andrew Luck

Andrew Luck


Position: QB

School: Stanford

Height: 6’4”

Weight: 235lbs

Historically, I’ve had trouble evaluating QBs. To have trouble assessing those who play the single most important position in all of sports does not bode well for a future in an NFL front office (which is why I’ve transitioned toward baseball). However, the Carolina Panthers’ collective futility and 1st overall pick in the upcoming draft has me revisiting the process of scouting college signal callers because after watching Jimmy Clausen for 5 minutes you know they really need one.

This brings us to Luck, who is first on lots of expert draft boards. I sat down with a couple people to watch him play in the Orange Bowl and make a judgment call on his abilities.

In the Huddle:

Stanford has an extensive playbook. Its depth is such that it necessitates that Luck wear a wrist band with a list of plays on it. In fact, the playbook is so deep that Stanford’s Center has to wear a wristband as well because not all of the plays will fit on just one wristband. Plenty of NFL QBs lean on a similar crutch, and it’s not like they have a full load of classes and extracurriculars on their plate. Luck should have no problem communicating plays to teammates on Sundays.

Pre Snap:

Stanford uses a lot of pre snap movement, often shifting multiple players at a time. I noticed most of the time Stanford ran the ball post shift, so it is unclear if Luck is using this movement to identify coverages or if it is just a cog to confuse the defense. Either way, the foundation for using motion to identify coverage, a very valuable asset for an NFL QB, is in place.

Reading Coverages:

Virginia Tech rarely played straight man to man. They were mostly in zone coverage or man to man on the WRs on the outside with two deep safeties and the linebackers in intermediate zones. Luck held onto the ball longer than I’d like to see, especially early in the game. As the game went on he was getting rid of it more quickly. Either he was having trouble making his reads or his WRs weren’t getting open. Whatever the case, it was encouraging to see Luck adjust and improve as the game went on. It’s also possible he was nervous. 21 year olds get nervous when they have to do something in front of a few million people.

Pocket Presence:

Luck moves well in the pocket, and is very athletic and mobile when he needs to be. He wasn’t presented with heavy blitzes so I can’t determine how he would respond to them.

Throwing the Ball:

Luck’s mechanics were poor early in the game. His stationary mechanics were funky and he was jumping when he threw the ball on rollouts. Later in the game he improved dramatically. He has a good arm, not elite but more than good enough for the NFL. He is accurate in the pocket but tends to underthrow guys a little bit when he’s on the run. He showed good touch on short passes. Once he decides to throw the ball, it is out of his hands quickly.

Intangibles:

Everything seems in check. He seems to have a good head on his shoulders. I highly doubt he’ll get into fights at strip clubs or murder more than one drifter during his career.

Advanced Metrics:

The Lewin Career Forecast (a regression analysis that values completion% and games started in college as the most influential factors in determining a QB’s NFL success) may not be optimistic about Luck. Luck only has 26 or 27 games started for his career and a poor completion% last year (56%) drags his career numbers down. If Luck is a bust, it’s a notch in the belt of this metric. The specifics (who compares to Luck in this aspect and how they turned out) I’ll know closer to the draft.

How sexy is this?

Prediction:

He’ll go #1 if he comes out. He reminds me of Aaron Rodgers, built thicker and stronger and more durable.

NFL Draft Pospect Scouting Report: Jerrel Jernigan

Jerrel Jernigan


Position: WR

School: Troy

Height: 5’9”

Weight: 190lbs

Offensive trends in the NFL are ever changing. We now see more shotgun formations and multiple WR sets than ever before. As such, teams are finding value in WRs that change direction quickly, run good routes, and get yards after the catch. Guys like this (Wes Welker, Davone Bess) turn a high percentage, short pass into gains of 7-15 yards and some even bust them for big plays. This is the kind of player I was hoping to see when I turned on the New Orleans bowl to watch Troy WR Jerrel Jernigan. The things I read in preparation for scouting Jernigan had me thinking that he might just be evolution’s next logical step in wide receiverdom.

Speed: He’s got plenty. He’s not DeSean Jackson or anything like that, but he’s certainly faster than your average receiver. I timed him at 4.46 from the 40 to the goal line in full pads on a QB Power Right run out of the Wildcat. It’s good to know that his stature doesn’t hinder his speed when he’s fully dressed. Lots of these WRS that run good 40 times at the combine can’t carry pads and a helmet and maintain that speed. Jernigan can.

Route Running: This is a difficult thing to scout from watching TV because often times WRs will run out of frame. From what I DID see, his routes aren’t sharp all the time. He’s been able to rely on his physical gifts to get open thus far. He won’t be able to in the NFL. Route running can always be coached, though, as long as Jernigan is receptive to it. So while he’s raw right now, he has tremendous potential in this area.

Hands: He catches the ball with his hands, which sounds like the most obvious thing in the world, but lots of receivers use their bodies to catch the ball, which lead to drops. I counted two occurrences on Saturday when Jernigan looked to turn upfield before he had the catch well secured.

Other: Not a good blocker. Operates very well with the ball in space a la Donte Stallworth. Didn’t have a chance to see him go up for any jump balls. Jernigan average 15 yards per catch his junior year and only 9 yards per catch during his senior campaign. While this would normally be cause for concern, it’s likely due to the absence of QB Levi Brown who graduated after last season and is now in the NFL. May have trouble with press coverage.

Prediction: 2nd maybe 3rd round. Not enough skills to offset his physical limitations and be a #1 WR but should excel in the slot guy and as a weapon on returns.

NFL Draft Prospect Scouting Report: Ben Ijalana

Ben Ijalana


Position: Guard/Tackle

School: Villanova

Height: 6’4”

Weight: 320lbs

With college bowl season around the corner, I have a long list of NFL prospects to watch over the holiday break. It’s much different from scouting baseball players and I haven’t published anything like this to this point, but once upon a time I was better at evaluating football players than baseball players.

I’d heard about Ben Ijalana and watched him in person at Lehigh, on TV vs. Richmond and again today against Appalachain State. I feel comfortable enough to publish my thoughts on him and will continue to do so with other draft eligible players over Winter Break. Here are my thoughts on Ijalana

Run blocking: Ijalana certainly has the size to be an effective run blocker. He has long arms to control defensive linemen and plays with good footwork. He pancaked several defenders on crash plays to his right which has to appeal to teams that run cutback runs and nakeds. He kicks out well on sweeps.

Pass blocking: Kick slide isn’t so great, his legs even cross at times. Savvy ends would recognize this and knock him to the ground while he’s off balance or swim inside while he over extends toward the outside. He has a hard time deciding who to block when teams overload his side. When he does lock on to his guy, the play is over, he won’t let him go. He kept ‘Nova QB Whitney clean all game vs. App State.

Other Stuff: I’d like to see if Ijalana is faster in his kick slide at Right Tackle. This is something, at the latest, I’ll know by the combine. He passes the eyeball test as far as physicality goes. That doesn’t always mean anything (see Boothe, Kevin) but he does look the part. There wasn’t an instance where he blocked in space downfield on a screen, something lots of teams would like to see him do. Everything I’ve read on him anticipates a move to guard at the next level, but I’d like to see him at right tackle first. He doesn’t seem quick enough to play LT in the NFL. Keep in mind that, while he looks dominant now, the level of competition he is playing against isn’t on par with other prospects. Some small school guys work out (Jahri Evans) and some don’t (Vlad Ducasse so far).

My Prediction: It’s early and this will change, but I’d say 3rd round with a move inside to left guard.