Felipe Rivero Scouting Report (Tampa Bay Rays)

Rays pitcher Felipe Rivero had the most impressive arm of any that I saw during my trip to Florida. The 21 year-old, Venezuelan lefty presents scouts with an interesting conundrum. He has flashes impressive stuff but comes with a few concerning warts.

Rivero’s size has been an issue for scouts since he signed in 2008. Listed at 5’10” and 150lbs, Rivero looks every bit of that and might even be a hair taller. He certainly pitches taller, staying very upright through his release and firing from a nearly true 3/4s arm slot. He pitches far enough downhill that I’m not worried about him being homer-prone because of his height and a flat fastball. Rivero has certainly put on weight, mostly in the right places, as his thighs and ass are thick and strong. He makes good use of the lower half in his delivery. Rivero’s arm works pretty well, It’s not the most gorgeous, athletic delivery I’ve ever seen but I’m not squirming when he throws, either. The control and command aren’t great (control is fringy right now, command is a little worse) but aren’t so bad that you banish him to the bullpen solely because of it (though, if the ‘pen is his ultimate destination, it will be a contributing factor). There’s essentially no physical projection remaining here.

As far as pure stuff is concerned, Rivero is packing. His fastball sat 91-94mph in his first inning of work with late tail, a true plus offering that showed even better at times. Rivero lost velo, however, as his outing wore on. He was showing mostly 87-90mph as early as the third inning and struggled to amp things up above 91mph when he wanted it later. There are several potential causes for this drop, obviously. Again, if this is something Rivero experiences habitually, it’s something that could contribute to a move to the bullpen.

Quality secondary stuff is a rarity in Hi-A ball so it was a treat to see not one, but two potential weapons in Rivero’s curveball and changeup. The curve will spin in the 76-78mph range with impressive vertical depth. The pitch is consistently average and will show plus more than a few times. Like the fastball, Rivero’s breaking ball was less and less enthralling as his start progressed. It was never bad, it was simply less dangerous. The changeup is behind Rivero’s other two pitches but it isn’t bad. A tad firm at times (mostly 83-86mph), it featured quite a bit of arm-side run and arm speed to match the heater, showing a tad better than average in a few instances while settling in as a grade 45 pitch overall. Rivero clearly has a feel for it and it’s not unreasonable to think it might be a swing and miss weapon one day.

Overall we’re looking at what I think will be three useful big league pitches one day and a control/command profile that should improve enough to play out of the rotation. The one concern I have is the stamina. As long as that isn’t an ongoing issue for Rivero I think the Rays have a stellar #4 starter here with room for a bit more if the player development staff works an unforeseen miracle or two. I expect Tampa to continue barbecuing this young man like they have with virtually all of their pitching prospects over the last half decade.

The Grades: Present/Future

Fastball: 55/60

Curveball: 55/60

Changeup: 45/55

Control: 40/45

Command: 35/45



 

Michael Pineda Scouting Report (With notes on Slade Heathcott and Tyler Austin)

As the Yankee-loving universe is probably aware, Michael Pineda is working his way back from injury on a lengthy rehab stint in the minor leagues. I made the lengthy journey to my least favorite minor league ballpark to see Pineda as well as a few other Yankee prospects.

Michael Pineda is every bit of the 6’7” and 260lbs at which he is listed (Curiously, he is listed at 260 on Baseball Reference’s MLB page and just 255 on Bref’s MiLB page). He is thick and physical, though not overly athletic and can have trouble repeating his delivery at times. This can, of course, result in spells where the control and command disappear. This was not the case last week when I saw Pineda, who threw 54 of his 79 pitches for strikes. His start on Sunday was poor, however, as he threw just 35 of 70 pitches for strikes. Strike throwing issues are a common occurrence in pitchers of extreme height. The Yankees struggled to remedy this very issue with Dellin Betances (6’8”), who has been relegated to middle/long relief in Triple-A where the results have been much better (Betances allowed just 3 runs and walked 6 while striking out 23 in 18.1 June innings). Pineda’s issues with mechanical repetition are not as horrifyingly bad as Betances’ have been, and I certainly don’t expect them to be bad enough that Pineda has to move to the bullpen, but when you consider how difficult it’s been for Yankees pitchers to iron out control issues over the last half decade or so, it’s worth noting.

Pineda’s stuff is good, albeit incomplete, as it was while he was busy racking up a solid 170 innings during his rookie year in Seattle. His average Fastball velocity during his inaugural 2011 campaign was 94.7mph. Last Tuesday, Pineda’s fastball ranged from 90-95mph and sat 92-93mph. It’s heavy and difficult to elevate thanks to Pineda’s size, but I’m sure the Yankees are hoping to see his velocity return to pre-injury levels. The fastball will have natural cut on it at times.

Pineda’s slider looked fantastic. He gained better feel for it as his start went on, throwing a few for strikes early in counts but mostly using it as a swing and miss pitch in the dirt. His slider displayed a wide variance of velocity. He threw a few as low as 81mph, several at 85mph and even touched 87mph once (on what was the best individual slider I’ve ever seen in person). Mostly he was 83-84mph with it, featuring significant late vertical movement. It’s a consistent plus pitch that will flash better, and a true weapon.

The changeup is another story. Firm, at 88-89mph, it doesn’t move much and is more or less just an offering Pineda can use to change speeds and keep hitters off his fastball. He doesn’t use it much and I don’t expect him to when he returns to the Major Leagues.

Grades:

Fastball: 65 (will show some natural cut)

Slider: 65 (flashes plus-plus)

Changeup: 40

Control: 45 (was great on Tuesday, was not on Sunday)

Command: 40

Overall, he still looks like a fine #3 starter, especially if the control he displayed in his first start at Double-A becomes the norm for him.

Other Yankee prospects of note:

Slade Heathcott (CF) – Physical and muscular, Heathcott put on the most impressive BP of anyone I saw at last year’s Arizona Fall League last year. He’s a tremendous athlete with plus-plus running and throwing tools and projects to stay in CF despite his thick build. He has the arm and offensive profile to play in RF if, for some reason, he does slow down one day. His swing is handsy, he doesn’t incorporate his lower half very much, but he’s strong enough and has a quick enough bat that balls still explode off the wood when he makes solid contact. Heathcott’s issues come from how he plays the game. His approach is over-aggressive, he’s often erratic and putting himself into situations where he could get hurt (and he often does). The ceiling here is quite high, All Star type stuff. Whether or not he gets there will depend on all sorts of secondary still that take time to develop (and frankly, to scout). I want to see more, but I like what I see very much.

Grades:

Hit: 45 (approach issues and handsy swing need some tweeking)

Power: 50 (could tap into more if he incorporates the lower half into the swing better)

Glove: 60

Arm: 65

Run: 70

Tyler Austin (Corner OF) – A body built for a corner outfield spot, Austin has tremendous bat to ball ability but lacks the power you look for in a left or right fielder. There’s enough pop there that I still think he could put up numbers befitting an average Major League outfielder (especially in Yankee Stadium), especially when you factor in his advanced approach at the plate. The defense is just okay, nothing notable there, good or bad. Austin’s approach is such a big part of his game and will play such a huge roll in his future that, like Heathcott, I want to see more to get a better feel.

Grades:

Hit: 60

Power: 45 (could play up to due home park environment and thanks to his approach which will get him into favorable counts)

Glove: 45

Arm: 50

Run: 40

Anthony Ranaudo Scouting Report (Boston Red Sox)

“I need something in the foreground to give it some scale”

That line from Jaws is all I could think about when I first laid in-person eyes on Anthony Ranaudo who is a monstrous human being, one whose size is not done justice in photographs. At 6’7” and a listed 231lbs (which I think might be a tad light), Ranaudo is an imposing presence on the mound. His delivery is a bit odd, slow and meandering to start before everything speeds up toward the end. It looks odd and uncomfortable and may or may not have a little bit to do with the two arm injuries he’s had over the past few years and the problems he’s had with control in the past. One thing I positively love about Ranaudo’s delivery is his arm angle. It’s a nearly straight over the top offering that allows Ranaudo to take full advantage of his frame and create more downhill plane on his pitches than I’ve seen out of any other prospect this year.

Combine that extreme plane with true plus velocity and you have one hell of a fastball. Ranaudo will sit 92-94mph with the heater and will touch 96mph. When a pitch that hard is descending from the heavens, it’s quite hard to do any damage to it. Ranaudo’s best secondary pitch is a 60 grade power curveball that sits in the low 80s and has true 12-6 movement. His command and use of the pitch is not yet refined. I’d like to see him pitch backwards with it, freeze hitters with it, bury it in the dirt for swings and misses. He just kinda throws it and sees what happens right now. That’ll work against Double-A hitters because the pitch is too explosive on its own to be trifled with at this stage. But it’s something for him to work on.

Ranaudo threw an awful lots of curveballs the other night and more or less ignored the changeup, which is a below average offering at present. On the surface you’d think they’d have Ranaudo working on the change, which site in the 86-88mph range and features almost no movement. Ranaudo’s changeup grip is a hybrid straight change/circle-change type grip. I wonder if, given his arm angle and the size of his hands and fingers, if a splitter grip might be more effective.

The raw material is there for a mid-rotation starter, maybe more if everything (an improved changeup, more sophisticated use of the curveball, good health) comes together. At the very worst (if the control goes backward for one reason or another or he continues to struggle with injuries and can’t handle a starter’s workload) I think he has the stuff to be a dominant late-inning reliever. I like him quite a bit and look forward to checking in with Ranaudo again soon to see if strides have been made.

Grades:

Fastball: 65 (tons of downhill plane)

Curveball: 60 (needs to learn how to optimize its usage)

Changeup: 40 (maybe try a split grip?)

Control: 45

Command: 40

One Other Red Sox arm of note:

Miguel Celestino (RHP) – Acquired from Seattle along with Bill Hall in the Casey Kotchman trade, Celestino is tall, wiry and has 80 grade fastball velo but lacks control over his body and his delivery which results in 30 control/command. It’s really, really messy. He features a split in the low 90s and a short little slider/cutter thing in that’ll touch 93mph. You can’t teach someone to throw this hard, but Celestino’s got to iron some things out if he’s going to be a big leaguer. This is his first year pitching in full-time relief.

Fine, one more guy I kinda like:

Pete Ruiz (RHP) – Plus fastball, plus slider (81-83mph) which he uses in all sorts of fun ways (snuck in the back door several times vs Reading last week) and a curveball with velocity just barely beneath the slider. Control comes and goes, mostly goes. Double-A hitters don’t often see a guy who can spot the breaking ball where Ruiz was sticking it last night. It might not be as effective in the big leagues where more hitters can react to it and do something with it. He’s 25 years old at Double-A but he interests me.

Eric Previews an Eagles opponent: Baltimore Ravens

Since there's no more minor league baseball to go scout I figured I'd satisfy my craving for writing by previewing Eagles games and shit. It's not going to be beautifully written and I'm not going to try be a fortune teller week to week, I just want to present some matter-of-fact stuff (mostly via Football Outsiders) that you would wanna know while you watch the game.  Let's talk about the Ravens.

General Offensive stuff:

Baltimore's offensive formula isn't hard to decipher. Hand the ball to Ray Rice, throw bombs and dump the ball off to Ray Rice when the deep routes aren't open.  That's mostly it.  It makes sense when you realize that Ray Rice is one of the league's most valuable players, Joe Flacco has the howitzer to chuck it down field and Torrey Smith is one of the NFL's fastest wideouts.  The problems with this offense are that it often lacks rhythm and Flacco is statuesque so he needs the O-line to block well to give deep routes time to develop since he's not creating time for himself.  The Ravens generally suck against standard nickel pakages and thrive against vanilla 3-3-5 nickel looks.  The Eagles don't have the true nose guard to play a 3-3-5 so don't sweat that.

The Ravens are one of the few NFL teams to still use a true fullback, Vonta Leach, and he plays a lot. Last year the Ravens ranked last in the NFL single back looks.  It follows then that they ranked 30th in 3-wide receiver sets. You're gonna see a lot of 2RB 1TE 2 WR looks today.

Individual Offensive stuff:

Joe Flacco: Joe throw ball far. Flacco threw 78 passes last year that traveled 20+ yards (third in NFL) and drew 5 more pass interference penalties to go with it.

Ray Rice: Rice rushed 290 times last year, about 240 of those coming with a fullback in front of him.  of the 90 passes Rice caught in 2011, 60 of them were as checkdowns. He is the Ravens' bellcow.  He's had 200+ carries and 60+ catches for 3 straight years.  The only other gys to do that? Marshall Faulk, Priest Holmes, Roger Craig and Marcus Allen.  He's a very special player.

Anquan Boldin: Awesome career is starting to wind down.

Torrey Smith: Look for Smith to be targeted off of play action. 22% of his targets last year were off play action, as were 3 of his 7 TDs.

Offensive Line: Left tackle Michael Oher is freakishly talented but doesn't pick up blitzes well.  No more Ben Grubbs at guard is a big loss for Baltimore.


General Defensive Stuff:

This was the best defense in the league last year.  They've lost Terrell Suggs who, despite the presence of Ray Lewis, Haloti Ngata and Ed Reed, is the best player on the squad.  Suggs had 14 sacks and 2 INTs last season but also pressured the opposing QB 39 other times last year.  Those pressures led to 3 INTs, 2 fumbles, an intentional grounding penalty and several holding penalties.  He's a monster but he's not playing.  The Ravens rush five guys almost 30% of the time, fifth most in football last year.

Baltimore only got pressure on Andy Dalton 8 times last week.  If they can get to Vick (after his 35 yard completion last week, Vick was 0-18 on passes under pressure) this game is going to be a disaster.   Last week the Eagles had trouble with defensive backs blitzing and struggled to communicate on stunts.  Danny Watkins sucks. No more Jason Peters.  Evan Mathis is just okay.  It could be a problem.

Okay that seems pretty good.  Go football.

MLB Prospect Scouting Report: Trevor May (Phillies)

Scouting Phillies righty, Trevor May, this year has not been easy. A whiff inducing howitzer one start, a frustrating, homer prone mess the next, May entered the 2012 season as the Phillies' consensus #1 prospect and leaves it having taken an enigmatic step backwards. It's not an insurmountable retardation of the Washingtonian's development, especially when you remind yourself that May only realistically projected as a mid-rotation starter anyway. Of course, a full page write-up and action shot in Baseball America's annual handbook will often alter the layperson's perception of a player, no matter how uninspiring a system for which he is the masthead.  There was more hype surrounding May this year than was warranted and, as such, his tumultuous season feels worse than it actually was.  It's time we take a step back, forget about May's pre-season status as the top dog in the Philly system, and have a context-free look at what there is to work with.  That's what I've got for you here.

Trevor May looks mighty impressive in his uniform. A broad-shouldered 6'5", he has the frame of an inning eating horse.  There's no projection left, but as May has filled out nicely.  He's only listed at 215lbs but trust me, he's carrying more than that and he carries it quite well. May 's athleticism isn't anything to write home about.  He doesn't always repeat his delivery well and his command suffers as a result.  He cuts himself off a bit before he gets to his 3/4s delivery, an arm angle which stifles some of the downhill plane you'd like to see s 6'5" pitcher get on the ball.  Onto the stuff…

May mostly pitches with a low-90s fastball that will touch as high as 94mph. I did see him kiss 96mph several times in a start early this season but I didn't see that much heat again all year.  May will incorporate a two-seamer every now and then ( it usually hums in around 89mph) but it's not much of a weapon right now.  While previous reports indicate healthy armside run, from my vantage point May's fastball looked straight.  And boy, does he leave it up in the zone a lot.  Many of the whiffs May induces come from high fastballs that big league hitters will either scoff at or launch into orbit.  It's been an issue of May's for a while now and it hasn't been corrected or even improved. 

May’s stable of secondary pitches is headlined by a good looking curveball.  It’s usually sharp with good depth and breaks late.  He can bury it and throw it for strikes and he adds and subtracts from it well.  It usually sits upper-70s but he’ll take some off and throw a big, loopy curve in the low 70s once in a while. I can’t decide if I’m pleased he’s learned this little trick or concerned because he thought he had to.  There’s one HUGE problem with May’s curveball.  He throws it from a different arm slot than his other pitches.  He’s 3/4s for everything except the curve for which his arm becomes more vertically oriented upon acceleration.  As such, it’s easy to pick up out of his hand.  This needs to be corrected yesterday.

May’s changeup is bad.  In his Eastern League Semifinal start last week he threw just one handsome changeup through 5.1 innings of work.  He often leaves it up in the zone, same as the fastball, and it rarely exhibits the fade/action you look for en un buen cambio.  May also throws a slider/cutter type thing in the 82-86mph range.  It’s short and unrefined but it exists.

So what exactly do we have here? In short it’s a pitcher with an ideal build and above average velocity with some fatal flaws in his secondary stuff and whose control/command development has stagnated.  I wouldn’t be surprised if May began next season back at Reading, though if I were in charge, I’d send him to Triple-A where more seasoned hitters won’t let him get away with the stuff he still mostly gets away with against Eastern League bats.  Maybe adversity and failure in front of minor league baseball’s biggest crowds will catalyze development.  If he’s an abject failure next season, maybe I start thinking about penning him.  Regardless, May’s ceiling is mostly the same (folks, I saw 96mph, a plus curve and a plus change at various times this year. A mid-rotation starter is in there somewhere) but the chances he gets there are now minute. 

I could go on forever about May because, most of the time, prospect failures are far more interesting than their successes.  You’ll see a new name atop the Phillies organizational prospect rankings next year but that doesn’t mean it’s time to give up on Trevor May.  It’s just time to over hype somebody else. 

MLB Prospect Scouting Report: Tyler Cloyd (Phillies)

Tyler Cloyd is now set to make his first career big league start tonight so why don't you read this hastily written scouting report so you know what you're watching?

Just named International League Pitcher of the Year, Cloyd has been fantastic for the IronPigs this year but the scouting reports are underwhelming in comparison. My thoughts are no different.  I've got notes on Cloyd from two periods of his development (from some relief appearances he made in last year's Arizona Fall League and two starts with the 'Pigs this year, including one last week) and they're identical both in my subjective evaluation and all sorts of objective measures like his times home from the stretch (about 1.35 seconds).  I'll make this short and sweet since I'm at work charting Justin Verlander, who diarrhea'd in the tub last night.

Cloyd is a 6'3", 190lb righty with a comfy, athletic delivery which he repeats very well. His arm comes through a little late but his mechanics are otherwise effortlessly smooth.  It's allowed him, for the most part,  to consistently throw strikes.  However, be forewarned that I've seen him have multiple batter lapses where he just can't find the zone and, contrary to how most pitchers respond to these swoons, Cloyd starts to work faster and faster until the catcher needs to come out just to calm him down.  Most of his listed weight is located in his ass and thighs and he uses his lower half well to generate "velocity" which I have in Bennett Brauer quotes because there just isn't very much of it.

Cloyd's fastball sits in the upper 80s (86-89mph, might touch 92 tonight with the adrenaline pumping) and is mostly straight, though it does exhibit some natural cut when he locates it to his glove side. He'll throw a two-seamer on occasion.  It's not a good major league pitch and I expect it'll take a back seat to his best offering, a cutter, which he tosses in anywhere from 83-86mph.  Cloyd's cutter moves quite a bit and he uses it as a multi-tasker even Alton Brown would be proud of.  To left handed hitters, he'll back door it for strikes or run it in on hands to induce weak contact.  He'll run it away from righties to garner swings and misses or throw it early in counts for called strikes. I'm comfortable putting a 50 on it despite the lack of velocity just because Cloyd has harnessed it so well.

Cloyd's secondary stuff in underwhelming.  His curve, which has 11-5 movement and sits in the mid 70s, will flash average but it's mostly a liability.  He didn't work with his changeup enough for me to slap a grade on it. To me, that's telling.  From the scout seats at Coca Cola Park it was easy to pick up release variation on the curveball but I have no idea what it looks like 60 feet away.

Folks, we're looking at a back end starter/bullpen guy here. Someone who'll provide value for the big club by virtue of the fact that he's not awful and probably won't get hurt. Spot start him, get mop up innings out of him on his day to throw, send him down, call him up, long man....Cloyd's going to have a major league career as a swiss army knife as long as being jerked around doesn't negatively impact his performance.  That's great, and guys like this are useful to have around on the cheap.  But don't look at his Triple-A ERA and expect a savior. He's not one. He's just a reason to watch tonight's game.

MLB Prospect Scouting Report: Adam Morgan (Phillies)

Adam Morgan has made impressive strides

It’s been a pretty upsetting year for Phillies fans on all fronts.  Not only has an aging Major League roster provided the fan base with perhaps 2012’s most disappointing season in all of sports but a farm system bereft of elite talent doesn’t inspire much optimism for the future. A small ray of light, peering out through the morass of injuries, IronPigs and subtle radio caller racism, was recently brought up to Reading.  This faint but legitimate photon, poking his head out from an obscure corner of an all time dumpster fire, is young lefthanded pitcher, Adam Morgan. 

Adam Morgan didn’t come into the season with much heat on him at all. He wasn’t on Keith Law’s organizational top ten, he wasn’t on Kevin Goldstein’s Future Shock top twenty and he barely made it on to Baseball America’s top thirty, sneaking onto the Phillies’ list at number twenty nine, seven spots behind his Crimson Tide rotation mate, Austin Hyatt. Something has changed. No longer is Morgan, a third rounder from the 2011 draft, being described as a “soft tossing, command and control guy.” He’s started missing bats, more than one per inning, and forced his way up from Clearwater into a really fun, prospect laden rotation at Double-A Reading.  With the fan base’s silver lining forty five minutes away from me, you know I made the drive with my stopwatch and notebook.

What was cool about this scouting trip was the clean slate on which I could conduct my analysis. I didn’t accidentally stumble upon any opinions or reports on him because there just aren’t any yet, and I didn’t actively seek any out before I saw him because I wanted to be surprised and uncontaminated by anyone else’s ideas. I hopped in the car not knowing if Adam Morgan was right handed, short, fat, black, handsome, blonde or cross eyed. It made me all the more excited to see him and drink everything in.  If you’re not into dry, vanilla, missionary position type scouting reports then I’ll just tell you now that I like this kid quite a bit and I think he’s going to be a useful big leaguer. Here are those sentiments expressed in more detail….

The twenty two year old Morgan is not a jaw dropping physical specimen. He’s in fine shape, but his 6’1” frame offers no positive projection. What you see is what you’re going to get.  If Morgan’s physique is going to change, it will change horizontally. Let’s hope it doesn’t because sometimes guys who gain weight have a hard time maintain the athleticism in their delivery, which right now for Morgan is just fine. Morgan lands hard on a stiff front leg and there’s a little bit of effort as he fires but nothing is so violent that I’m concerned about repeatability or sustainable health. These sound mechanics help produce above average control and average command of a slightly above average fastball (I’ll put a 55 on it, 89-92mph) that plays up thanks to terrific movement.  That movement, however, is inconsistent and Morgan’s heater will get flat and straight at times.  His somewhat diminutive stature prevents him from getting natural downhill plane on his fastball which he left up in the zone a handful of times on Tuesday. He got away with it because, hey, it’s Double-A and Trenton’s lineup is pretty bad but that won’t fly in the big leagues and Morgan will have to continue to hone in on the lower third of the zone to avoid becoming homer prone.

The fastball is complimented by a plus changeup (60 but flashed better three or four times), a true swing and miss pitch which consistently made Thunder hitters look both uncomfortable and ridiculous.  It is clear this is where Morgan has made strides this year as his changeup was previously just a footnote on his scouting report. The pitch sits in the upper 70s with lots of fade and action and, most importantly, Morgan maintains his fastball’s arm speed when he throws it. I see this as a weapon that will miss some bats in the big leagues one day.

Morgan has two breaking balls, a slider and a curve.  The two can overlap a little but the hook (30) will usually sit mid to upper 70s while the slider (45), which I like much better, hangs out in the low 80s.  Further development of one of these pitches is crucial to Morgan’s future.  He has an idea what to do with the slider, getting a swing and miss or two at some back foot work against righties, but it needs refining and I’d like to see him pitch backwards with it later in his starts to get ahead of hitters with something new. 

I’d love to get another look at Morgan before the season’s out to better grasp the nuances of his craft.  After one look, I think the Phillies have stumbled upon a nice backend starter who has a chance to be a solid mid-rotation guy if he improves even just one or two of his current deficiencies.  Stick a feather in the cap of the Phillies’ player development staff.