Scouting Trip #6: Charlotte Knights (White Sox AAA) at Lehigh Valley IronPigs (Phillies AAA)

Yes, I am once again an IronPigs game day employee. My initial blog-related thought upon my hiring was, "Scouting trips will be few and far between." I did not think I'd be able to catch enough of the games to thouroughly scout the top prospects that ventured into Coca-Cola park. However, my strategically timed "breaks" combined with an entire series worth of looks at the players I was interested in gave me enough to write on.

The Charlotte Knights visited the IronPigs. Many of the top prospects in the White Sox system reside in AAA. Here is what my eyes told me about them:

Tyler Flowers -Cather- Age:24 From: Chipola Junior College

Flowers was a 33rd round draft and follow pick by the Braves in 2005 and was traded after the 2008 season in the deal that brought Javier Vasquez to Atlanta. The list of legit Braves prospects that were traded away in recent years and look to turn into stars is ever growing and Flowers' name can now be added to that list.

Flowers' Defense

Though Flowers' aptitude behind the plate has been maligned by scouts, he was named the Southern League's (AA) Best defensive Catcher last season by the league's managers. His game calling skills are fine from what I saw. Pitchers and coaches compliment his leadership ability and communication skills, and he works hard on understanding opposing hitters. His arm is average. He is rather large for a catcher (6'4", 245 lbs) which makes it difficult for him to block balls in the dirt since it takes a long time to move a frame that large. As such, he may have to move to first base down the line.

Flowers' Offense

Flowers' stats from the current campaign are rather pedestrian, and while it is a small sample size, some of the numbers are very discouraging. Flowers has a career OBP% over .400 and this season is sitting at an Abraham Nunez-esque .323 (actually, its not THAT bad). His .450 SLG% is almost 50 points lower than his career average. Like I said though, small sample size.

Flowers numbers are poor so far this year but watching him over the weekend convinced me they would turn around. He has plus power, clocking a HR in each of the first two games he played during the series. His history of plate discipline is encouraging, since that is a skill that isn't likely to erode over time. Those two traits alone are likely enough to land him in the middle of a Major League batting order. He also recognizes pitches quickly. It seems to me that Flowers is already better than AJ Pierzynski, and the aggressive nature of White Sox GM Kenny Williams may force Pierzynski out of town and Flowers into the White Sox lineup.

Dayan Viciedo -First Base- Age: 21 Es de: Cuba

Viciedo is in just his second year of pro ball after defecting from Cuba and is already in AAA at age 21. He inked a 4 year, $10 million major league contract in December of 2008 and was immediately shipped to AA for his fist year. The WHite Sox have had success in the past with Cubans, as Alexei Ramirez is a fine regular and Jose Contreras improved once he arrived in Chi-town.

Viciedo's Defense

Yuck. Originally a 3rd baseman, Viciedo has eaten his way over to first. At 5'11" and 240 lbs, the newly christened 21 year old will likely venture into Kirstie Alley territory now that he has access to alcohol. I fully expect him to move to DH. His only viable major league defensive tool is his arm, whih is wasted at first base anyway.

Viciedo's Offense

I'm lukewarm on Viciedo's bat. He has tremendous bat speed and hits the ball very hard henever he makes contact, but he barely walks (just 30 times in 700 career atbats) and is detrimental on the basepaths. He destroys lefties (1.107 OPS against left handers this year) and is rather pedestrian against righties. With Paul Konerko's contract expiring and a youth movement on the horizon in Chicago, Viciedo may be plugged into the Sox lineup next season. In my opinion, he won't be the stud some expect him to be, but rather is on track for an offensive career that compares to someone like, say, Jose Guillen.


Brent Morel -3rd baseman- Age: 23 College: Cal Poly

Morel was a 3rd round pick in 2008 and wasted no time signing and getting his pro career underway, as he made it out of the rookie league and up to Low-A ball later that year. He spent last season at High-A ball where he hit .281 wtih a .335 OnBase% and reallt surprised everyone by stealing 25 bases in just 128 games. He started this year off at AA where his OnBase% spiked to .375 and was promoted to AAA as a result. Morel is a scrapper, he ran out every grounder/popup during the series vs. the Pigs.

Morel's Defense

Morel has a terrific arm, well above average even for a third baseman. His range and reactions are also above average. While I don't see him becoming elite (Scott Rolen, Adrian Beltre), Morel will be a true defensive asset at third (Nick Punto, Brandon Inge) and is probably ready to play defense in the majors right now.

Morel's offense

His bat does not impress. Morel has struggled mightily since his promotion to AAA and has never shown he has any power (even at 6-1, 220lbs). He has a nice line-drive swing and might hit .300 in the majors during his prime, but is no more than a bottom of the order hitter on a contender. Maybe Morel can be moved to second base (thoough Gordon Beckham is entrenched there right now) where his bat would be more acceptable. I'm thinking Morel has a career like that of Placido Polanco.


These are the players I got enough of a look at to feel comfortable judging. I did not get to see enough of Jordan Danks and Dan Hudson did not pitch during the series.

Scouting Trip #5: Buffalo Bison (Mets AAA) at Lehigh Valley IronPigs (Phillies AAA)

SOrry for not updating more often...I've had serious writer's block. I should have plenty to write about in the next few weeks with players being called up and the mlb draft and such. With that said, let's get to a quick scouting report.

As Sun Tzu and Green Day tell us, "Know Thy Enemy". A good way to do this is to keep tabs on the Mets farm system. When the Buffalo Bison (NY AAA) came to play in the Valley, I had a chance to do just that. Here is my opinion on some future Mets, that will soon be choking late in a season near you.

Josh Thole - Catcher - 6'1", 205lbs, Bats:Left Throws:Right Age: 23

Thole was drafted straight out of high school (where he played nothing other than catcher) in 2005 and was promptly moved to first base. In his first 3 years as a pro, Thole only caught a few dozen games. In 2008, the Mets decided to move him back behind the plate. Why? His bat doesn't profile at first. Thole hit just 8 HRs in his first 5 pro seasons. Major league teams need more pop from their first baseman. The little raw power Thole possesses is sapped by his ubiquitous two strike approach. He chokes up for every pitch, a pure singles hitter. So while he doesn't strike out a lot (just above 10% of his atbats) he doesn't walk alot either (again, just a bit more than 10% of the time). His career minor league On Base% is .380 (good) but his Slugging% is .375 (really bad).

Defensively, Thole's 3 years off from catching everyday have set his defense back. His arm strength is below average and the long and slow motion he uses doesn't help his Pop Times either. Several of his throw downs to second before innings tailed off toward the first base side of 2nd base, which tells me his arm angle is too low. While reports indicate his is coachable and a hard worker, it seems he still has a ways to go to be major league ready defensively. At age 23, thats not good news.

So Thole might one day be a singles hitting catcher who is average defensiely. He's not someone Phillies fans should be worried about.



Ruben Tejada- Shortstop - 6', 165lbs, Bats:Right Throws:Right Age:20

Yes, Tejada is just 20 years old and already in AAA. The Mets have moved several International players through the system rather aggressively. It hasn't really paid off. More on that later.

Tejada is quite good defensively. He can turn plays that would otherwise be singles into outs using his above average speed and range at short and his good arm strength. While he made several highlight plays during the game, they were made more difficult than they had to be by what, to me at least, looked like slow reactions to balls hit his way. I think he is a fine defender, but the aesthetically pleasing aspects of his game may cause some to overrate him.

Offensively, Tejada is awful. Yes, he's rather fast and probably has the wheels to steal 15 or 20 bases in a season, chances are he won't get on base enough to do that. He has poor pitch recognition, zero power, and even some strange habits in the box. For instance, at one point during his second atbat, Tejada moved up in the box midway through the pitcher's windup. Just struck me as odd.

AT only 20 years of age and a paltry 160lbs, Tejada has plenty of time to improve his offensive skills and get stronger before the Mets can give up on him. He looks to me like a future utility infielder (Wilson Valdez redux?) and possibly a stopgap at 2nd between Luis Castillo and superior prospect, Wilmer Flores, who is only 19 right now and a LONG way from the majors. Again, not someone to b worried about.


Jennry Mejia- Right Handed Pitcher - 6', 165lbs, Age:21

Mejia entered the season as the Mets' top prospect. The dominican righty dominated advanced-A ball last year and earned himself a late season promotion to AA, no small feat at age 20. He has top-of-the-rotation kind of stuff, but has the command one would expect to see in a kid with only 210 innings in pro baseball (the Mets have limited him to about 50 innings per season so far).

His fastball sits at 93-96 and will tick higher, and the ball sometimes shows natural cutting action toward left-handed hitters. His changeup is his best off-speed pitch and, at 85-87 mph with good tail, looks like a soft two-seamer. His curveball is very inconsistent, but at its best, it's plus with good two-plane break and depth in the upper 70s.

He's thick but not tall, and his arm slot is just below 3/4 -- so he has to work on staying on top of the ball, and the finger injury reduced his already below-average command. He can be a #1 starter.

You may be asking, "Eric, did you see this guy pitch?" No, I just wanted to mention him to dig at Mets fans. You see, Mejia was not even close to being ready for the big leagues, but the Mets threw him into the bullpen this year anyway, where he has been lousy and thrown fastballs around 80% of the time. The past few months of baseball have set a potentially dominant pitcher back immeasurably. I love it


Check back this weekend for more stuff

Scouting Trip #4: Louisville Bats (Reds AAA) at Lehigh Valley IronPigs (Phillies AAA)

After a week or two without anything to write about I was given a gift from the baseball gods: Aroldis Chapman was coming to the Lehigh Valley.

Chapman is a lanky, 6'4" Cuban left-hander with an interesting back story. He was expected to turn into the ace of Cuba's national team for things like the Olympics and World Baseball Classic, but Chapman had other ideas. He tried to defect from Cuba in 2008 but failed. In July of 2009 at the World Port Tournament in the Netherlands, Chapman fled the team in the middle of the night and established residency in the Pyranees principality of Andorra. This was necesary because if Chapman had become a U.S. citizen, he would have been subject to the MLB Draft, where his earning power would have been limited by MLB's slotting system and service time clock. As a foreign player, he was classified as a free agent, which created a bidding war for his services. The Reds won that war, and inked Chapman to a six year, $30 million contract. In contrast, Stephen Strasburg, a far superior prospect, signed for 4 years and $15 million, with a $7.5 million signing bonus. Chapman had to establish residency in any country other than America in order to enjoy the benefits of the free market. Ironic.

On the Baseball side of things, Chapman's fastball has quite a reputation. He touched 102mph while pitching in Cuba and 100mph in the World Baseball Classic.

Here's what I took in on Wednesday night, Chapman and otherwise:

Aroldis Chapman LHP Cincinnati Reds

Chapman's fastball:

Velocity was good, but not as electric as advertised. The overall range was 88-98 mph. The low velocities (high eighties) came late in Chapman's start (80 pitches in) and are either the result of fatigue or the blister he left the game with shortly thereafter. He sat mostly in the low to mid nineties throughout the game, amping up to high velocities when guys got on base.

Aroldis throws the fastball alot. 75 of his 96 pitches were heaters. 16 of 18 atbats were led off with a fastball. All 14 of Chapman's firt 14 pitches...fastballs. Only 7 of those 14 were thrown for strikes, so it took Chapman a little while to get into a rhythm.

Major league hitters will jump all over a pitch that is thrown this often. Chapman must either mix other pitches in more often, build up enough stamina to consistently use a fastball in the mid to upper 90s, or be moved to the bullpen where he can let it rip without having to worry about wearing down.

Chapman's Slider:

It's filthy. The slider sat between 81 and 85 during his start. With sharp movement and tilt, it is a true swing and miss pitch. Chapman threw 9 sliders, 7 of them for strikes and 5 of those were singing strikes. But he only threw it 10% of the time. While I understand Chapman has had problems with walking guys and the team probably wanted him to throw lots of fastballs just to start throwing strikes again, I'd like to see more sliders out of him.

Chapman's other stuff:

Chapman also throws a curve and a changeup. The curve is alot like that of Cole Hamels. It is just another pitch for hitters to think about. Chapman threw it for a strike 3 of 5 times and only coaxed a swing with one of them.

The changeup is lousy. Chapman threw 6 of them and 5 of them were balls. The only strike he got with it was from John Mayberry Jr. who was cheating fastball and guessed wrong. Chapman's arm speed is noticeably slower when he throws the change. He airmailed it once or twice, so his feel for the awkward grip required to throw the change is poor.

Misc stuff: Chapman pitches just as well from the stretch as he does from the windup. His pickoff move was, to me at least, average. The IronPigs baserunners may think differently, however, as two of them were picked off during the game. My vantage point during the game was not condusive of judging the lateral movment on Chapman's fastball.

My Final Assessment:

Aroldis Chapman has two dominant, major league pitches in his repetoire at age 22. He has the frame (6'4") to handle a full workload of major league innings as he physically matures. If he can iron out his control issues even slightly, he'll be a #1 starter. Worst case scenario, the Reds are sitting on a dominant late-inning arm.

Random stuff: 96 pitches, 63 for strikes...76% fastballs...3 hits allowed, 3 walks allowed (2 of them came in 6th inning when Chapman was clearly having blister trouble)...7 strikeouts...54% first pitch strikes...2 of 3 hits against were for extra bases...3:4 Groundball to Flyball ratio


Other dudes you should know about:

Yonder Alonso 1b/LF Cincinatti Reds

Alonso played first in college at The U. His bat is just about major league ready even though he's just 23 years old, but Joey Votto is so damn good that there's not enough room for Yonder. It was obvious the Reds were going to have to try one of them in Left Field eventually, and now Alonso is guinea pigging it in the outfield. While I was too busy focusing on Chapman to judge Alonso's aptitude in the outfiled, I was very attentive while he was in the batter's box. He lays off anything thats not a fastball. The way his swing loads up may allow good fastballs to sneak past him. He worked the count into his favor in most of his atbats, allowing him to get that fastball he likes to swing at. While he was 0-5, you can see signs of a middle of the order bat.

Todd Frazier 2b/3b/OF Cincinatti Reds

Frazier, a Rutgers grad, was labeled the #1 prospect in the Reds system by Baseball America. What I saw Wednesday night from Frazier and what he has been doing all season at the plate is making them look bad. Frazier showed poor discipline in every atbat. His swing was as balanced as drunk guy on a row boat. I was very disappointed. I hope he gets it together because everything I've read about Frazier talks up his attitude and work ethic. I also have a soft spot for guys with versatility, and Frazier can handle as many as 6 defensive positions. He's a mess at the plate right now and needs coaching in the worst way.

Truly Knowing Chooch

The sabermetric renaissance has given us a very clear representation of a baseball player's offensive performance. It has also provided us with measures that explain, to a point, a pitcher's success or failure, factoring in things like luck and ballpark size. Now we can even quantify defensive skills with things like Ultimate Zone Rating, and determine not only how many runs a player produces with his bat, but how many he saves with his glove.

One thing the stat geek still can't quantify, however, is catcher defense. Blocking balls in the dirt, game calling skills, handling pitchers....there's a lot that goes on behind the plate that you just can't put a number on. So these skills still have to be scouted "the old fashioned way" by actually watching games and focusing on the catcher. This is what I sought out to do Sunday night with Phillies catchers Carlos Ruiz.

If you ask anyone who regularly watches the Phillies about Chooch, they'll probably say something close to the following: "He has good at-bats, he's good defensively and he calls a good game." Does he really? I feel like catchers who are offensively unspectacular get labeled with the "good defense, calls good game" cliche. Conversely, I think that catchers who are good defensively and put up huge numbers at the plate have their skills in the former ignored. So, I wanted to sit down and focus on Sunday night's Phillies/Mets game and decide for myself whether or not he actually calls a good game.

How did I go about doing this? I kept track of the pitch sequences to each hitter, both pitch type and location (the location Chooch set up at, not the one where the pitch ended up because sometimes pitchers miss that spot). From this I could see where Ruiz called effective pitches and where he made mistakes and within individual at-bats as well as how he changed things up against any hitter in their next time up. Here is what I found:

Where Chooch is good:

Ruiz has either a great memory, a well scripted gameplan or both because Met hitters rarely saw pitch sequences (either type or location) that even resembled what they got a look at in ANY of their previous atbats. The only hitters that saw trends were David Wright and Fernando Tatis, both of which were pitched almost exclusively inside. This is probably the result of scouting reports dictating such location.
Ruiz was catching Jamie Moyer (fastball, sinker, changeup, cutter, slider, curveball) so he had plenty of weapons to mix and match against Mets hitters. Jamie Moyer's wide array of pitches allow for this more so than a pitcher who only a few pitches, so watching Ruiz catch Cole Hamels could yield different results.

I was really impressed with Carlos' approach from the 7th inning onward. The Phillies had a good lead and Ruiz had his pitchers throwing tons of strikes and pitching to contact. Why wear out bullpen arms by trying to get cute and strike guys out when you can just pound the strike zone rack up outs? Set aside your ERA and get out of there. Good stuff Chooch.

Where Chooch is bad:

While Ruiz does a nice job changing things up on hitters between atbats, he does not do a good job of mixing things within them. In the 23 atbats in which his goal was to keep runners off base (keep in mind once the Phillies had a large lead, Chooch's strategy changed, this sample is taken exclusively from when the outcome of the game was still in question and every out mattered) the pitch sequence within the plate appearance was effective 16 times, detrimental 6 times, and inconsequential 4 times.

In the atbats where Moyer got knocked around, Ruiz would often call for the same pitch in the same location two times in a row. On the first of those two pitches, the hitter would be fooled and swing poorly. On the second pitch, the hitter would always hit the ball hard. Ruiz failed to realize the hitter was making adjustments. This happened several times in the first inning (on Castillo's single, Wright's HR and Rod Barajas' single) and got better as the game progressed. Ruiz needs to try not to fall in love with a pitch selection just because it worked once before.

So yes, overall Carlos Ruiz calls a good game but he doesn't always call a good atbat.

Scouting Trip #3 (cont'd)

Daisuke Matsuzaka

The enigmatic Dice-K was a total bitch to scout. He throws so many different pitches in the same velocotic range that you find yourself second guessing exactly what he is throwing. It got easier as his start went along and I became for familiar with the flight paths of his pitches. In the future I will try to find some video on pitchers that throw a wide array of pitches.

Dice has not lived up to the hype he generated coming out of Japan. He is a classic nibbler, hovering just outside the strike zone with his pitches because he doesn't trust his stuff enough to take his chances throwing strikes. Major League hitters are selective enough that they don't chase and as a result, Matsuzaka runs up tremendous pitch counts early in starts.

Looking at my chart, Dice-k showed an interesting trend in this start. He threw more pitches per inning as the night went on (1st- 12, 2nd- 13, 3rd- 17, 4th- 17, 5th- 18, 6th- 21) but was getting ahead in the count as the game went on as well (first pitch strike % by inning: 1st-33% 2nd-25% 3rd-50% 4th-33% 5th-75% 6th-80%). This relationship is counterintuitive. You would think getting ahead in counts would generate quicker outs. However, faling behind forced Dice to throw pitches in hittable places, which Lehigh Valley hitters offered at. Since the Iron Pig hitters aren't very good (3,4,5 hiters a combined 0-11 in this game), Dice-k didn't get hurt.

Matsuzaka got markedly better as his start drew on, garnering most of his 8 strikeouts later on. He got into a rhythym, saw a slight increase in velocity (Fastball went from exclusively in upper 80s early to hovering in the low 90s) and showed a more diverse mix of pitches later in his start.

Dice-K does a lot of different things with the fastball, cutting it, sinking it. All of it is pretty average to me. His changeup sits in the high 70s and is decent. I liked his curveball/slider, which he threw for strikes and got some outs with. He supposedly throws both but I had a hard time differentiating between them.

While he did strike out 8, Dice-k threw 99 pitches over 5 and 2/3 innings, which is a lot and will probably be more once he faces more selective major league hitters. I think he will struggle when he returns.

Scouting Trip #3: Pawtucket Red Sox at Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Wednesday night gave me a chance to look at two very talented and enigmatic pitchers: Red Sox righty Daisuke Matsuzaka and Phillies lefty Joe Savery. Both pitchers have struggled to throw strikes over the past two seasons, and many have soured on the once promising futures of each of them. Here is what I saw Wednesday night.

Joe Savery

Savery was the Phillies' first round pick back in 2007, selected out of Rice 19th overall. A star two-way player for the Owls, Savery was expected to rise through the Philadelphia farm system quickly. That hasn't happened. Savery is a shell of what he was coming out of college.

While he used to consistently pitch in the low 90s with his fastball, Savery's velocity is gone. He was in the high eighties early in the start, hitting between 86 and 89 in a first inning full of nothing but fastballs. I was encouraged by this because Savery's fastball was at 84mph when I saw him pitch last year. However, as his start went along, Savery lost velocity. His fastball would drop to as low as 82mph. A noticeable difference could be seen when he pitched from the stretch, and his average fastball velocity dropped every inning he pitched. Another interesting thing I noticed was this: Savery's arm is VISIBLY SLOW. The only way I can compare it to is the release speed of a QB. Go watch highlights of Byron Leftwich and Dan Marino. Joe Savery's speed of release is like leftwich's. His arm does not have that lightning fast snap and release that most pitchers have. This lack of deception allows hitters to pick the ball up before it leaves Savery's hand.

So why has this occured? Savery had shoulder problems in college which may contribute to his dead-looking arm. His legs may be heavy and out of shape, which lead to to significant velocity drop when he is pitching from the stretch and the importance of leg drive is amplified.

Savery has two secondary pitches; a slider and changeup. He shows a wide range of velocity for both of these pitches as well. The slider sits between 79mph and 75mph and the change between 76mph and 71mph. Neither is particularly infatuating,and Savery generated 0 (Zero) swings and misses them during this outing. He also has trouble throwing strikes.

You may say, "Eric, this range of velocity is abnormally wide and fishy. What if you're an idiot and couldn't recognize a different type of pitch?" If that is true, and Savery was throwing some sort of 4th pitch I could not recognize, then isn't it sad that the movement on this pitch is so poor that I couldn't differentiate it from his fastball?

Savery's delivery and secondary stuff are not deceptive or effective enough for him to even profile as a lefty specialist. He obviously has issues that need to be worked out, but the issues themselves are not too obvious. We can only theorize what they are. I say shoulder problems and poor lower half conditioning.

Due to the NFL Draft (which is keeping me occupied) I'm a little behind on writing these. I'll post my report on Dice-K later in the day.

Scouting Trip #2: New Britan Rock Cats at Harrisburg Senators

Metro Bank Park in Harrisburg, PA is home to the Harrisburg Senators. A regular to the ballpark mentioned to a friend of mine that they usually have about 1,000 people at the stadium for any home game. On Friday night, they had almost 8,000. The stadium was ill prepared and they were running out of food, napkins and electricity (stadium suffered a power surge just before first pitch and totally blacked out). Why? Stephen Strasburg was pitching. I was there.

While my pilgrimage to Pennsylvania's capitol city was so tumultuous and eventful that it would make Odysseus blush, I'm just going to give my report on the much talked about right-hander.

Stephen Strasburg

Strasburg's fastball is great. Hitters who offered at the pitch either swung and missed or popped up. The lack of a radar gun at the stadium (seriously, people its 2010, get a radar gun) limits my ability to ascertain a few things. For starters, I can only rely on what was published to know his velocity. Scouts in the newspapers said his fastball was mostly at 98mph. With the naked eye it looked like he was adding and subtracting from it at times. My seats were not condusive of noticing things like armside run.

His Curveball is his best pitch right now. Sitting in the mid eighties, it breaks down and away from right handed hitters. He throws it for strikes and can bury it in two strike counts to get swings and misses.

The changeup is a work in progess. It since in the high eighties and low nineties and it seems like he overthrows it sometimes. When he overthrows it it lacks a pronounced fade/drop towards the end of its flight. It flashed once or twice as a truly plus pitch.

Due to rain, Strasburg only threw 2.1 innings and so I did not get to see other nuances of his game. How well does he hold runners? Does he throw strikes from the stretch? How does he deal with adversity? How often does he shake off the catcher? These are all tings I want to get to know about Stephen Strasburg. I will try to go out and see him again soon.

For now, he reminds me of a right handed Randy Johnson. Dominant fastball and a dominant and powerful breaking ball (though, The Unit had a low 90s Slider, not a curve). If the changeup develops (which is, along with financial interests, the main reason he is down in AA) then we are looking at a dominance on the Pedro Martinez level.