NFL Combine Thoughts: QBs, RBs and WRs

I had a chance to watch the QBs, RBs and WRs this weekend. Here are my thoughts on those young men.

QBS

Cam Newton- He sucked. If I’m a GM I’d already have him off of my draft board so it wouldn’t have mattered, but Newton was inaccurate all day missing receivers with more regularity than an Activia commercial. He’s a physical freak, but he didn’t look good throwing the ball and made excuses for his shittiness after he was done. EVERYONE had to throw to WRs they don’t have rapport with, Cam. Get over it. He’s a bust waiting to happen.

Ryan Mallett- Mallett looked really good today, but he’s another guy I’d stay away from. He struggles at games biggest moments and his mechanics deteriorate quickly under pressure. His release seems much quicker now than it was the rest of this year, which is good because it was Leftwich slow in games. His drug issues are probably overblown. If it’s just pot I wouldn’t care but if it’s anything heavier I’d stay away. So Mallett made himself money today but he wouldn’t get it from me. If you’re going to take a round 1 QB you have to KNOW they’re going to be good.

Blaine Gabbert- He wins the award for “best NASCAR driver name” in this year’s draft class. Gabbert didn’t throw, the only QB not to do so. He was trying to justify his absence at his presser and said, among other things, “I’m not shying away from competition.” Yes, Blaine, you are.

Jake Locker- 3rd or 4th rounder. I think he should play baseball. If you can’t tell, I’m down on this year’s QB class.

Colin Kaepernick- I really like Kaep Gun but he has serious issues with his delivery that need to be corrected if he wants to be an accurate NFL QB. His stock took a dip today, but if there’s one QB I’d draft, its him…as long as it’s the 5th round or later.

RBs

Mark Ingram- This dude is serious. Pre-40yd dash, Ingram was in a rubber sweat suit, rolling something on his thighs to loosen his muscles. He already had a full lather worked up, sweat running down his forehead. He looked focused and intense getting ready TO RUN A FORTY YARD DASH. He’s a monster, and the only RB in this year’s class I see making a significant impact in the NFL. One caveat here is his speed score. For those of you who don’t know, the Speed Score is a formula designed to measure a RB’s 40 time with his Weight. Since force=mass*acceleration, we have to understand that all 40 times are not created equally. It is much more impressive to run a 4.40 at 220lbs than at 195lbs. Typically, RBs with a speed score over 100 are good NFL backs. There are exceptions, of course, but it’s an interesting tool to use. Ingram’s speed score is only 94.

WRs

Julio Jones- Jones was great today. Physically impressive and faster than I thought he’d be (he ran a 4.40 40 at 220lbs) Jones may not fall to the Rams at #14 overall like many mock draftniks have thought thus far. The one drill he had trouble with was the Gauntlet, so maybe his hands aren’t great, but neither are Dwayne Bowe’s and that’s exactly who Jones reminds me of.

Jon Baldwin- I really need to sit and watch Baldwin’s tape. Reviews of him never seem to be good, yet he’s always an early 2nd rounder in these mock drafts. What the hell?

AJ Green- Outperformed by Jones today, Green is still the Best wideout in the draft and is very good at every aspect of his position, including route running, which is atypical of someone his age. Usually, players as physically gifted as Green don’t need to work on technical shit, they’re just gifted enough to coast on talent alone. Green doesn’t I like him and wouldn’t mind if the Panthers took him #1.

Jerrel Jernigan- I wrote a full report on Jernigan a while back, envisioning a nasty weapon to deploy in the slot. I even thought he could slip into the back end of round 1 if the right scenario presented itself. Then he ran his 40…..not even close to the 4.35 I thought he’d post. It’s not the end of the world. Davone Bess ran a 4.8 I think, and he’s one of my favorite NFL players. Sadly, Jernigan didn’t do well in the change of direction drills either. I have to re-evaluate him.

Now let’s talk about this graph. I have here a graph on which I spent a shit load of time. It shows the Height (Y Axis) and Body Mass Index (x Axis) of notable WRs from recent years. Notice that most of the successful ones fit into one of four areas of the graph. Calvin Johnson is an outlier, a freak unlike anything Earth has previously seen, so he’s not in a box. Also, Roddy White is smack in the middle of the whole thing and he’s really good, too. Some of this year’s rookies are highlighted in red. Just like the speed score, this isn’t gospel. It’s simply an interesting tool that I’d use to identify busts if I were a GM.

NFL Draft Pospect Scouting Report: Jerrel Jernigan

Jerrel Jernigan


Position: WR

School: Troy

Height: 5’9”

Weight: 190lbs

Offensive trends in the NFL are ever changing. We now see more shotgun formations and multiple WR sets than ever before. As such, teams are finding value in WRs that change direction quickly, run good routes, and get yards after the catch. Guys like this (Wes Welker, Davone Bess) turn a high percentage, short pass into gains of 7-15 yards and some even bust them for big plays. This is the kind of player I was hoping to see when I turned on the New Orleans bowl to watch Troy WR Jerrel Jernigan. The things I read in preparation for scouting Jernigan had me thinking that he might just be evolution’s next logical step in wide receiverdom.

Speed: He’s got plenty. He’s not DeSean Jackson or anything like that, but he’s certainly faster than your average receiver. I timed him at 4.46 from the 40 to the goal line in full pads on a QB Power Right run out of the Wildcat. It’s good to know that his stature doesn’t hinder his speed when he’s fully dressed. Lots of these WRS that run good 40 times at the combine can’t carry pads and a helmet and maintain that speed. Jernigan can.

Route Running: This is a difficult thing to scout from watching TV because often times WRs will run out of frame. From what I DID see, his routes aren’t sharp all the time. He’s been able to rely on his physical gifts to get open thus far. He won’t be able to in the NFL. Route running can always be coached, though, as long as Jernigan is receptive to it. So while he’s raw right now, he has tremendous potential in this area.

Hands: He catches the ball with his hands, which sounds like the most obvious thing in the world, but lots of receivers use their bodies to catch the ball, which lead to drops. I counted two occurrences on Saturday when Jernigan looked to turn upfield before he had the catch well secured.

Other: Not a good blocker. Operates very well with the ball in space a la Donte Stallworth. Didn’t have a chance to see him go up for any jump balls. Jernigan average 15 yards per catch his junior year and only 9 yards per catch during his senior campaign. While this would normally be cause for concern, it’s likely due to the absence of QB Levi Brown who graduated after last season and is now in the NFL. May have trouble with press coverage.

Prediction: 2nd maybe 3rd round. Not enough skills to offset his physical limitations and be a #1 WR but should excel in the slot guy and as a weapon on returns.