Domonic Brown: Supernova

I have to accept the fact that I’m going to be wrong quite a bit in this business.  The world of prospecting has a higher rate of failure than any profession this side of meteorology and learning to deal with my own misevaluations as well as the vitriol generated therefrom is a process I’m becoming more familiar with as both the kids I scout and I age.  I’m not alone.  Go crack open any Baseball America Prospect Handbook from the past half decade and see just how wrong everyone (the pundits and the scouts which they use as a supplement to their own opinions) is all the time.  The 2008 BA Handbook has names like Joba Chamberlain, Travis Snider, Franklin Morales and Brandon Wood scattered about the entire sport’s top 15 prospects. From elite to extinct, such is the fate of far too many talented young ballplayers.  Prospects fail all the time. I’ve known this since I started pursuing the art of scouting while I was in college and for the most part, I’ve made peace with it. So why do I feel nauseous when I even entertain the idea that it might be happening to Domonic Brown? Because he might not just become a mistake, he might become my mistake.

If any outsider should know what has gone wrong with Brown, it should be me.  I was there, after all, for most of the roller coaster ride that has been Brownie’s career during the past few years.  A lowly intern/usher for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate during my college summers, I was the guy who would show up early on work days to watch BP, bug the scouts sitting there in their awful polo shirts and scribble in my notebook during games as I fumbled with my stopwatch which I constantly dropped.  I was a terrible employee, but I was becoming a damn fine scout.  I’ll never forget the humid afternoon Brown came up from Double-A and proceeded to litter the parking lot beyond the Philly Pretzel stand in right field with batting practice missiles.  It didn’t take long to see that everything was there.  Above average speed, an above average arm, advanced approach and pitch recognition for his age, average present power with projection left in the body and dreams of above average defense in an outfield corner as he grew into his lanky, 6’5” frame and became more coordinated.  Gracing magazine covers and webpage headlines, Brown was on top of the prospect world.

Between then and now, something has gone horribly awry.  Brown hasn’t homered since August 2^nd of last year.  His swing, especially the lower half, is a mess.  He’s constantly late on good velocity.  His misadventures in the outfield are excruciatingly awkward, and not the sort of “Hunter Pence/Larry David, I’m weird but I don’t give a shit and I make it work” awkward, but more of a “Michael Cera, self aware, it’s so bad I need to divert my eyes” awkward.  He sports a sub-.300 OBP to this point and has just 3 steals at a paltry 50% success rate.  People, possibly including the Phillies front office, are giving up.

The causes of this tragic collapse are difficult to nail down.  Scouts are perplexed.  I asked Baseball Prospectus writer, Kevin Goldstein, to comment on Brown:

“I’m confused too…everyone is.”

The response’s simplicity juxtaposes how complicated the problems probably are.  I have my theories, of course.  In my opinion this shit sandwich was spawned from some combination of the tinkering Phillies instructors did with Brown’s swing upon his first arrival to the majors, the long lasting effects of the broken hamate bone Brown suffered last year, the constant jerking back and forth between the majors and minors he has endured and whatever psychological trauma has eradicated his confidence as a result of all that stuff I just mentioned.  It’s a developmental cocktail mixed to induce failure and Brownie has had to drink it. 

The worst part is that all of this is happening at a time when the Phillies big league roster has begun to crumple into a mediocre, geriatric heap.  It’d be nice to have an infusion of offense and youth into the lineup, but without performing well in the Lehigh Valley, there’s little justification to promote Brown and anoint him the savior.  While I’m discouraged, there’s too much talent there to lose all hope, and I’ll be monitoring Brown carefully (I watch every single one of his at bats on MiLB.TV every day) waiting to drink from the cup that still runneth over with ability.  For now, while he tries to work things out, he’ll be booed on a regular basis by ignorant old men who know nothing beyond the fact that Brown was a top prospect who isn’t panning out.  It can’t be easy and it can’t be fun.  

As much as I’d like to give Domonic Brown an elixir to solve his baseball problems, I’d like to give him a manly hug and tell him that some of us realize this mostly isn’t his fault and that we’re not giving up on him.  After the vigor and conviction with which I once touted Brown’s future stardom, I might need one too.   

Pigs to the Bigs: Profiling the Phillies September Call Ups

Immediately after the Lehigh Valley IronPigs were eliminated from the playoffs I received a text message alerting as to me who the Phillies had called up.  I thought I’d let everyone know exactly what the Phillies were getting down the stretch in those guys.

Brandon Moss

Moss was probably the best IronPig player this year.  He has fringe average tools across the board.  Average power, speed, defense, plate discipline, all sorts of stuff that makes you great at AAA.  He’d probably make most 25 man rosters as a bench guy.  He really closes himself off with his stride, leading me to believe he’ll struggle with well placed inside pitches. 

Erik Kratz

Kratz is the right catcher to call up.  Some other employees and I were debating whether Dane Sardinha or Kratz would be called up and why.  It was an interesting conversation to have since Kratz and Sardinha are diametric opposites.  Sardinha is a terrific defender while Kratz is atrocious behind the plate but the better hitter of the two.  Kratz has a long, slow stroke but is bull strong and has above average pull power.  He can be beaten by breaking balls that run away from him.  As I said before, he’s a defensive liability.  I routinely get pop times from Kratz in the 2.2s.  That’s slow.  He’ll pinch hit in certain situations but I’d be surprised if he got even one start down the stretch.  Brian Schneider could use the reps in case he’s pressed into playoff action and it would be foolish for Charlie Manuel to let Kratz take those innings away from Schneider.

Joe Savery

This is very interesting.  Savery was drafted as a pitcher out of Rice University in 2007’s first round.  The Phils were taking a medical risk on Savery who was coming off a surgery (as if drafting a pitcher from Rice wasn’t risky enough…they’re all overworked in college and get hurt).  He didn’t pan out.  His fastball velocity dipped to the mid 80s, he wasn’t accelerating his arm at all, and he was walking lots of hitters.  It was a disaster.  This year the Phillies decided to put a bat in his hands full time (Savery also played 1B at Rice and was a good hitter) and Savery responded by hitting well at High-A before falling off at upper levels.  Roster crunches and injuries pressed Savery back into action as a pitcher at AAA.  Suddenly, his velocity is in the low 90s.  He touched 93mph Friday night.  He hasn’t thrown that hard since his freshman year of college.  He also throws an upper 70s/low 80s breaking ball which needs refining.  He’s no longer the Fastball, Curveball, Changeup guy he was in college.  He’ll be exclusively Fastball/Slider for now if the Phils are smart.  He may carve out a role as a multi-inning lefty in the Phillies bullpen next year.  He gets a short audition now.

Justin De Fratus

Another guy auditioning for a bullpen spot next year.  De Fratus mixes a mid-90s fastball with a low 80s slider.  Both can get swings and misses.  He has an athletic delivery and uses his lower half well.  He’s a future big league reliever and I like the idea of giving him some low-pressure innings in the bigs this year.

Domonic Brown

Brownie’s hand is, to me, clearly not healed.  He’s had trouble squeezing fly balls in his glove, he doesn’t show the kind of batting practice power he’s shown in the past, his bat is slower and I’ve even seen kickback on his bat against plus velocity.  The broken hand won’t be healed until next season and Brown won’t be an asset until then.  He should be left off the playoff roster.  Let’s hope the kid’s confidence has been broken and he comes back to claim the job in LF next season.

BuggyWhip Bugaboo: Why Coaches Feel Weird About the Domonic Brown Swing and Why They Shouldn't

This photo looks eerily similar to Michelangelo's "Creation of Adam".  Coincidence?  I think not.

Domonic Brown’s return to the majors this week gives fans their first, real, big league look at the young outfielder with some semblance of normalcy.  No longer is his growth encroached upon by injuries, phantom platoon issues, spotty playing time or brainless coaches tinkering with his swing.  He has carte blanche to kick some ass without his development being infringed upon.  Despite the fact that Brown has been smashing balls with extreme prejudice this week (his low BA is the result of bad luck in a small sample.  It’s not his fault he’s crushing balls that Drew Stubbs is intercepting like some sort of government defense missile) baseball pundits are still uncomfortable with his swing and are expressing it in TV broadcasts, post game shows and radio spots.  They’re wrong.  They have Swing Xenophobia.  Let me quell your doubts, if you have any, about the viability of Brownie’s swing at the big league level, by breaking it down piece by piece. 

You should refer to the above video several times while reading through this paragraph to look for the things I’m talking about.  It’s a nice, long at-bat from the Arizona Fall League of 2009, so click play and let it run as you read, taking peeks back to the video when the pitches are about to be thrown.  

Let’s start with Brown’s stance.  A fuss is made about the height of his hands, which start up around his eyes.  Take a second to get into your own batting stance.  Where are your hands?  They’re probably up around your shoulders.  Move them up to your eye level.  Does that feel incredibly uncomfortable?  Probably not, and it certainly doesn’t for me.  Even if his stance was incredibly unorthodox (which it’s not) it’s not as if people with weird stances haven’t succeeded in the past.  Hell, Cal Ripken Jr. had more batting stances than Arnold Schwarzenegger has illegitimate children and he was a no girly-man at the dish.  So we’re over Brown’s stance.

Now let’s look at the beginning of his swing.  It appears Brown starts his swing, at least a little bit, during just about every pitch.  It was a concern for me at first.  I thought maybe he had trouble with pitch recognition and was constantly checking his swing.  Turns out it’s just something he kinda does.  It’s not without its benefits.  It allows him to spoil pitches he’s late to recognize as strikes because his bat is already half way there. 

If Brownie decides he wants to let loose with a full swing, he accelerates his bat at such an impressive rate that it makes up for that slower start.  You can see it in the video.  His bat starts slow and then explodes through the hitting zone.  He is well balanced and rotates his hips, an indication of power potential.

Brown’s swing is a little unorthodox, sure, but he is so freakishly athletic (he had a scholarship to play baseball and football for The U but opted to sign with the Phils) that he makes it work.  So Greg Gross, there’s no reason to try to change something that Brown’s been successful with for the past 5 years just because you can’t wrap your head around it.

Brown Noise: A Grass Roots Movement for Logic in Right

Let’s not over think this, people. Heading into Spring Training your beloved Phillies are one of the favorites to win the World Series, they have baseball’s best rotation, the best 2nd baseman on the planet, one of the best defensive shortstops on the planet, and players with at least one elite skill all the way down the lineup (Chooch: Plate Discipline, Howard: Power, Polanco: Contact and Defense, Victorino: Arm and Speed, Ibanez: Baldness). Despite raw talent as good as anyone in the league, ongoing discourse as to who the starting right fielder should be rages on. It’s not that hard.


No matter what happens in Spring Training, Domonic Brown should be your starting Right Fielder on Opening Day. And not in some bullshit platoon, either. I want to be confident in Ruben Amaro Jr., who has done well to regain my trust of late, but when rumors surface that Phillies decision makers are seriously considering a Ben Francisco/John Mayberry/Ross Gload timeshare in right, I want to vomit.

Is Brown a finished product? That depends what you mean by finished product. If to you finished product means, “He is as good now as he’ll ever be and can’t get any better” then no, he’s not a finished product, he still has plenty of room to improve. If you think finished product means. “He has nothing left to learn from minor league pitching” then yes, he’s golden brown on top.

Brownie demolished pitching at AA and AAA last year and is not going to learn how to hit major league quality changeups and sliders in the minors. Any time Brown spends with the Iron Pigs this year is a colossal waste of time, like a talented surgeon spending another year doing nothing but tonsillectomies.

If you’re worried about the pedestrian numbers Brown posted in limited Major League at-bats last year, take a deep breath and listen to reason. He wasn’t getting regular at-bats, his trips to the plate were sporadic. He never had a chance to get into rhythm. I think he should’ve been playing left field every day, instead of Ibanez’s corpse, but we’re past that. In addition, the sample size of plate appearances is far too small to draw any conclusions from.

I don’t expect Brown to set the world afire right away. There will be growing pains. But he is so physically talented that even while he’s learning on the fly (his defensive reads need work as do his throwing mechanics) he’ll be better than Gload or Francisco or Mayberry.

I’d rather have Dom go through his adjustment period in April and be good from May on than come up in June, have the same adjustment period a few months later and only be good from July on. The sooner he comes up, the sooner he becomes an All Star, and he will be an All Star one day.

So whenever this issue comes up around your water cooler or bar stool, I want you all to be total dicks and monopolize the conversation, beating the uninformed idiots over the head with Bunyanesque stories of Domonic Brown’s talents until the world agrees with us. Exhalt from your pinstriped towers about smart player development.  Rise and be worthy of this historical hour.  It is for the greater good. Aces and Catchers report this weekend, bitches.

Scouting Trip #1: Portland SeaDogs (BOS AA) at Reading Phillies (PHI AA)

A beautiful Saturday afternoon was beginning to waste away and my friends and I were chomping at the bit to go out and do something different. Previous plans to go see a night of amateur boxing in Philly fell through so we scrambled for some entertainment. We decided to head out to Reading to see the R-Phils play the SeaDogs. As I can never pass up a chance to sharpen baseball observation skills, I brought along my notebook. Here's what I saw:

Reading Phillies

Pitcher(s)

Mike Cisco- Cisco (that thong tha thong thong thong) is a small righty, just 5-11, 190lbs. The literature I checked out on him beforehand said his fastball would sit in the lower 90s and possibly touch 94mph. This assessment was optimistic, however, as he was mostly in the high 80s and peaked at 90 just a few times. He had difficulty throwing it for strikes during the first few innings on this night, and fell behind in the count several times. It certainly was not impressive enough to be an effective major league pitch, unless Cisco can locate it better. His changeup (low 80s) was fantastic, especially early on in the game. He garnered 4 swings and misses with it in the first inning alone, including 3 straight during the at-bat of touted Red Sox 1B prospect Lars Anderson. The first time he threw it I actually had to think twice about whether or not it was a breaking ball because it had so much fade/sink. Cisco's change got plenty of swings and misses from lefties, while right handed hitters often made poor contact. He mixed in a curve (which he actually threw for strikes a few times) and a cutter (weak slider maybe?). Neither was impressive.

Cisco was better earlier in the start, when most of the outs he acquired were via grounders. Balls started to take flight towards the middle of his start when the lineup turned over. He worked himself out of a few jams.

I think Cisco could add velocity if he pitched out of the bullpen. He needs to find a way to strike more people out. An improved fastball (by adding velocity or improving command) combined with his plus changeup would make him a viable middle relief candidate in the future. The changeup would allow him to keep lefties off balance and the two breaking balls would help against righties.

Cisco's final line: 6ip, 5 hits, 1 walk, 2Ks, 1 earned run

Hitters

Tyson Gillies (CF)- Gillies came over in the offseason from Seattle as part of the highly controversial Cliff Lee trade. He is a lean 6-2 190lbs. He has hearing aids in both ears which may be a blessing in disguise if he ends up playing for the Phillies one day, since he can simply remove them when he has a bad game. The first thing I noticed about Gillies is that he runs EVERYWHERE. I would too if I could run as fast as he can because he can freaking fly. He runs from the dugout to the outfield and back in again at 75% speed at the start and finish of every inning. He has lots of energy and hustle which will play well if Philly.

At the plate, Gillies is a slap hitter (think Luis Castillo or Chone Figgins) with no power. He failed to hit a ball hard during the game, his two hits being a bloop single that he barely squirted past the second baseman and a sly drag bunt. His On Base Percentage numbers from the past two season are very impressive (both around .430) which means he most likely has a terrific feel for the strike zone. This selectivity combined with his speed can make Gillies a serious weapon at the top of the lineup. However, neither of the times Gillies was on base presented him with a chance to run, so I did not get to see if he had base stealing instincts/skills. He was also not forced to make any defensive plays that I could scrutinize (never had to throw anyone out or chase down a ball in the gap), although he does have the same sort of "hop" that Alfonso Soriano has when he catches a routine fly ball. Youtube it to see what I mean.

The biggest caveat with Gillies comes from his lack of power. At higher levels (AAA and MLB) pitchers will know he has no power and simply challenge him with pitches in the strike zone. He may be forced to put ball in play on more at bats then he would like and his walk rate will drop. About 70% of balls in play are recorded for outs. His OB% will drop and his speed will be kept off the bases.

I want to scout Gillies again and get a look at his arm, his defense, base-running and pitches per at bat tendencies.

Domonic Brown (OF)- Brown is universally regarded as the Phillies top prospect. I got to see why for myself. 6-5 and lean, Brown has the frame to add muscle without losing his baseball skills. He's a tremendous athlete and had a scholarship offer to Miami (Domonic Brown.....the U) to play baseball and football.

Each of Brown's at-bats (he went 1 for 4) ended with him drilling the ball, most of the time down the middle of the field. His final plate appearance culminated with a blast to dead center that was caught at the warning track. His has great bat speed (something I'm just starting to be able to discern) which he showed on this near-homer as he allowed the ball to travel very deep into the hitting zone. Brown seems to recognize pitches well.

Like Gillies, I he wasn't forced to make any plays in the field or on the bases. I need to see him more to get a better idea of what he can do.

Several other interesting players participated in this game, but I will not get into what I noticed with those guys right now because it is getting pretty late and I have an 8 o'clock class tomorrow (Chemistry). Next Friday we are heading out to Harrisburg to check out Stephen Strasburg, Drew Storen and more, Be sure to check back then for another installment. of scouting and all week long for other random things.