MLB Prospect Scouting Report: Trevor May (Phillies)

Scouting Phillies righty, Trevor May, this year has not been easy. A whiff inducing howitzer one start, a frustrating, homer prone mess the next, May entered the 2012 season as the Phillies' consensus #1 prospect and leaves it having taken an enigmatic step backwards. It's not an insurmountable retardation of the Washingtonian's development, especially when you remind yourself that May only realistically projected as a mid-rotation starter anyway. Of course, a full page write-up and action shot in Baseball America's annual handbook will often alter the layperson's perception of a player, no matter how uninspiring a system for which he is the masthead.  There was more hype surrounding May this year than was warranted and, as such, his tumultuous season feels worse than it actually was.  It's time we take a step back, forget about May's pre-season status as the top dog in the Philly system, and have a context-free look at what there is to work with.  That's what I've got for you here.

Trevor May looks mighty impressive in his uniform. A broad-shouldered 6'5", he has the frame of an inning eating horse.  There's no projection left, but as May has filled out nicely.  He's only listed at 215lbs but trust me, he's carrying more than that and he carries it quite well. May 's athleticism isn't anything to write home about.  He doesn't always repeat his delivery well and his command suffers as a result.  He cuts himself off a bit before he gets to his 3/4s delivery, an arm angle which stifles some of the downhill plane you'd like to see s 6'5" pitcher get on the ball.  Onto the stuff…

May mostly pitches with a low-90s fastball that will touch as high as 94mph. I did see him kiss 96mph several times in a start early this season but I didn't see that much heat again all year.  May will incorporate a two-seamer every now and then ( it usually hums in around 89mph) but it's not much of a weapon right now.  While previous reports indicate healthy armside run, from my vantage point May's fastball looked straight.  And boy, does he leave it up in the zone a lot.  Many of the whiffs May induces come from high fastballs that big league hitters will either scoff at or launch into orbit.  It's been an issue of May's for a while now and it hasn't been corrected or even improved. 

May’s stable of secondary pitches is headlined by a good looking curveball.  It’s usually sharp with good depth and breaks late.  He can bury it and throw it for strikes and he adds and subtracts from it well.  It usually sits upper-70s but he’ll take some off and throw a big, loopy curve in the low 70s once in a while. I can’t decide if I’m pleased he’s learned this little trick or concerned because he thought he had to.  There’s one HUGE problem with May’s curveball.  He throws it from a different arm slot than his other pitches.  He’s 3/4s for everything except the curve for which his arm becomes more vertically oriented upon acceleration.  As such, it’s easy to pick up out of his hand.  This needs to be corrected yesterday.

May’s changeup is bad.  In his Eastern League Semifinal start last week he threw just one handsome changeup through 5.1 innings of work.  He often leaves it up in the zone, same as the fastball, and it rarely exhibits the fade/action you look for en un buen cambio.  May also throws a slider/cutter type thing in the 82-86mph range.  It’s short and unrefined but it exists.

So what exactly do we have here? In short it’s a pitcher with an ideal build and above average velocity with some fatal flaws in his secondary stuff and whose control/command development has stagnated.  I wouldn’t be surprised if May began next season back at Reading, though if I were in charge, I’d send him to Triple-A where more seasoned hitters won’t let him get away with the stuff he still mostly gets away with against Eastern League bats.  Maybe adversity and failure in front of minor league baseball’s biggest crowds will catalyze development.  If he’s an abject failure next season, maybe I start thinking about penning him.  Regardless, May’s ceiling is mostly the same (folks, I saw 96mph, a plus curve and a plus change at various times this year. A mid-rotation starter is in there somewhere) but the chances he gets there are now minute. 

I could go on forever about May because, most of the time, prospect failures are far more interesting than their successes.  You’ll see a new name atop the Phillies organizational prospect rankings next year but that doesn’t mean it’s time to give up on Trevor May.  It’s just time to over hype somebody else. 

MLB Prospect Scouting Report: Tyler Cloyd (Phillies)

Tyler Cloyd is now set to make his first career big league start tonight so why don't you read this hastily written scouting report so you know what you're watching?

Just named International League Pitcher of the Year, Cloyd has been fantastic for the IronPigs this year but the scouting reports are underwhelming in comparison. My thoughts are no different.  I've got notes on Cloyd from two periods of his development (from some relief appearances he made in last year's Arizona Fall League and two starts with the 'Pigs this year, including one last week) and they're identical both in my subjective evaluation and all sorts of objective measures like his times home from the stretch (about 1.35 seconds).  I'll make this short and sweet since I'm at work charting Justin Verlander, who diarrhea'd in the tub last night.

Cloyd is a 6'3", 190lb righty with a comfy, athletic delivery which he repeats very well. His arm comes through a little late but his mechanics are otherwise effortlessly smooth.  It's allowed him, for the most part,  to consistently throw strikes.  However, be forewarned that I've seen him have multiple batter lapses where he just can't find the zone and, contrary to how most pitchers respond to these swoons, Cloyd starts to work faster and faster until the catcher needs to come out just to calm him down.  Most of his listed weight is located in his ass and thighs and he uses his lower half well to generate "velocity" which I have in Bennett Brauer quotes because there just isn't very much of it.

Cloyd's fastball sits in the upper 80s (86-89mph, might touch 92 tonight with the adrenaline pumping) and is mostly straight, though it does exhibit some natural cut when he locates it to his glove side. He'll throw a two-seamer on occasion.  It's not a good major league pitch and I expect it'll take a back seat to his best offering, a cutter, which he tosses in anywhere from 83-86mph.  Cloyd's cutter moves quite a bit and he uses it as a multi-tasker even Alton Brown would be proud of.  To left handed hitters, he'll back door it for strikes or run it in on hands to induce weak contact.  He'll run it away from righties to garner swings and misses or throw it early in counts for called strikes. I'm comfortable putting a 50 on it despite the lack of velocity just because Cloyd has harnessed it so well.

Cloyd's secondary stuff in underwhelming.  His curve, which has 11-5 movement and sits in the mid 70s, will flash average but it's mostly a liability.  He didn't work with his changeup enough for me to slap a grade on it. To me, that's telling.  From the scout seats at Coca Cola Park it was easy to pick up release variation on the curveball but I have no idea what it looks like 60 feet away.

Folks, we're looking at a back end starter/bullpen guy here. Someone who'll provide value for the big club by virtue of the fact that he's not awful and probably won't get hurt. Spot start him, get mop up innings out of him on his day to throw, send him down, call him up, long man....Cloyd's going to have a major league career as a swiss army knife as long as being jerked around doesn't negatively impact his performance.  That's great, and guys like this are useful to have around on the cheap.  But don't look at his Triple-A ERA and expect a savior. He's not one. He's just a reason to watch tonight's game.

MLB Prospect Scouting Report: Adam Morgan (Phillies)

Adam Morgan has made impressive strides

It’s been a pretty upsetting year for Phillies fans on all fronts.  Not only has an aging Major League roster provided the fan base with perhaps 2012’s most disappointing season in all of sports but a farm system bereft of elite talent doesn’t inspire much optimism for the future. A small ray of light, peering out through the morass of injuries, IronPigs and subtle radio caller racism, was recently brought up to Reading.  This faint but legitimate photon, poking his head out from an obscure corner of an all time dumpster fire, is young lefthanded pitcher, Adam Morgan. 

Adam Morgan didn’t come into the season with much heat on him at all. He wasn’t on Keith Law’s organizational top ten, he wasn’t on Kevin Goldstein’s Future Shock top twenty and he barely made it on to Baseball America’s top thirty, sneaking onto the Phillies’ list at number twenty nine, seven spots behind his Crimson Tide rotation mate, Austin Hyatt. Something has changed. No longer is Morgan, a third rounder from the 2011 draft, being described as a “soft tossing, command and control guy.” He’s started missing bats, more than one per inning, and forced his way up from Clearwater into a really fun, prospect laden rotation at Double-A Reading.  With the fan base’s silver lining forty five minutes away from me, you know I made the drive with my stopwatch and notebook.

What was cool about this scouting trip was the clean slate on which I could conduct my analysis. I didn’t accidentally stumble upon any opinions or reports on him because there just aren’t any yet, and I didn’t actively seek any out before I saw him because I wanted to be surprised and uncontaminated by anyone else’s ideas. I hopped in the car not knowing if Adam Morgan was right handed, short, fat, black, handsome, blonde or cross eyed. It made me all the more excited to see him and drink everything in.  If you’re not into dry, vanilla, missionary position type scouting reports then I’ll just tell you now that I like this kid quite a bit and I think he’s going to be a useful big leaguer. Here are those sentiments expressed in more detail….

The twenty two year old Morgan is not a jaw dropping physical specimen. He’s in fine shape, but his 6’1” frame offers no positive projection. What you see is what you’re going to get.  If Morgan’s physique is going to change, it will change horizontally. Let’s hope it doesn’t because sometimes guys who gain weight have a hard time maintain the athleticism in their delivery, which right now for Morgan is just fine. Morgan lands hard on a stiff front leg and there’s a little bit of effort as he fires but nothing is so violent that I’m concerned about repeatability or sustainable health. These sound mechanics help produce above average control and average command of a slightly above average fastball (I’ll put a 55 on it, 89-92mph) that plays up thanks to terrific movement.  That movement, however, is inconsistent and Morgan’s heater will get flat and straight at times.  His somewhat diminutive stature prevents him from getting natural downhill plane on his fastball which he left up in the zone a handful of times on Tuesday. He got away with it because, hey, it’s Double-A and Trenton’s lineup is pretty bad but that won’t fly in the big leagues and Morgan will have to continue to hone in on the lower third of the zone to avoid becoming homer prone.

The fastball is complimented by a plus changeup (60 but flashed better three or four times), a true swing and miss pitch which consistently made Thunder hitters look both uncomfortable and ridiculous.  It is clear this is where Morgan has made strides this year as his changeup was previously just a footnote on his scouting report. The pitch sits in the upper 70s with lots of fade and action and, most importantly, Morgan maintains his fastball’s arm speed when he throws it. I see this as a weapon that will miss some bats in the big leagues one day.

Morgan has two breaking balls, a slider and a curve.  The two can overlap a little but the hook (30) will usually sit mid to upper 70s while the slider (45), which I like much better, hangs out in the low 80s.  Further development of one of these pitches is crucial to Morgan’s future.  He has an idea what to do with the slider, getting a swing and miss or two at some back foot work against righties, but it needs refining and I’d like to see him pitch backwards with it later in his starts to get ahead of hitters with something new. 

I’d love to get another look at Morgan before the season’s out to better grasp the nuances of his craft.  After one look, I think the Phillies have stumbled upon a nice backend starter who has a chance to be a solid mid-rotation guy if he improves even just one or two of his current deficiencies.  Stick a feather in the cap of the Phillies’ player development staff.

Domonic Brown: Supernova

I have to accept the fact that I’m going to be wrong quite a bit in this business.  The world of prospecting has a higher rate of failure than any profession this side of meteorology and learning to deal with my own misevaluations as well as the vitriol generated therefrom is a process I’m becoming more familiar with as both the kids I scout and I age.  I’m not alone.  Go crack open any Baseball America Prospect Handbook from the past half decade and see just how wrong everyone (the pundits and the scouts which they use as a supplement to their own opinions) is all the time.  The 2008 BA Handbook has names like Joba Chamberlain, Travis Snider, Franklin Morales and Brandon Wood scattered about the entire sport’s top 15 prospects. From elite to extinct, such is the fate of far too many talented young ballplayers.  Prospects fail all the time. I’ve known this since I started pursuing the art of scouting while I was in college and for the most part, I’ve made peace with it. So why do I feel nauseous when I even entertain the idea that it might be happening to Domonic Brown? Because he might not just become a mistake, he might become my mistake.

If any outsider should know what has gone wrong with Brown, it should be me.  I was there, after all, for most of the roller coaster ride that has been Brownie’s career during the past few years.  A lowly intern/usher for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate during my college summers, I was the guy who would show up early on work days to watch BP, bug the scouts sitting there in their awful polo shirts and scribble in my notebook during games as I fumbled with my stopwatch which I constantly dropped.  I was a terrible employee, but I was becoming a damn fine scout.  I’ll never forget the humid afternoon Brown came up from Double-A and proceeded to litter the parking lot beyond the Philly Pretzel stand in right field with batting practice missiles.  It didn’t take long to see that everything was there.  Above average speed, an above average arm, advanced approach and pitch recognition for his age, average present power with projection left in the body and dreams of above average defense in an outfield corner as he grew into his lanky, 6’5” frame and became more coordinated.  Gracing magazine covers and webpage headlines, Brown was on top of the prospect world.

Between then and now, something has gone horribly awry.  Brown hasn’t homered since August 2^nd of last year.  His swing, especially the lower half, is a mess.  He’s constantly late on good velocity.  His misadventures in the outfield are excruciatingly awkward, and not the sort of “Hunter Pence/Larry David, I’m weird but I don’t give a shit and I make it work” awkward, but more of a “Michael Cera, self aware, it’s so bad I need to divert my eyes” awkward.  He sports a sub-.300 OBP to this point and has just 3 steals at a paltry 50% success rate.  People, possibly including the Phillies front office, are giving up.

The causes of this tragic collapse are difficult to nail down.  Scouts are perplexed.  I asked Baseball Prospectus writer, Kevin Goldstein, to comment on Brown:

“I’m confused too…everyone is.”

The response’s simplicity juxtaposes how complicated the problems probably are.  I have my theories, of course.  In my opinion this shit sandwich was spawned from some combination of the tinkering Phillies instructors did with Brown’s swing upon his first arrival to the majors, the long lasting effects of the broken hamate bone Brown suffered last year, the constant jerking back and forth between the majors and minors he has endured and whatever psychological trauma has eradicated his confidence as a result of all that stuff I just mentioned.  It’s a developmental cocktail mixed to induce failure and Brownie has had to drink it. 

The worst part is that all of this is happening at a time when the Phillies big league roster has begun to crumple into a mediocre, geriatric heap.  It’d be nice to have an infusion of offense and youth into the lineup, but without performing well in the Lehigh Valley, there’s little justification to promote Brown and anoint him the savior.  While I’m discouraged, there’s too much talent there to lose all hope, and I’ll be monitoring Brown carefully (I watch every single one of his at bats on MiLB.TV every day) waiting to drink from the cup that still runneth over with ability.  For now, while he tries to work things out, he’ll be booed on a regular basis by ignorant old men who know nothing beyond the fact that Brown was a top prospect who isn’t panning out.  It can’t be easy and it can’t be fun.  

As much as I’d like to give Domonic Brown an elixir to solve his baseball problems, I’d like to give him a manly hug and tell him that some of us realize this mostly isn’t his fault and that we’re not giving up on him.  After the vigor and conviction with which I once touted Brown’s future stardom, I might need one too.   

A Phillies Prospect Retrospective

Phillies fans used to think Carlos Carrasco was the next big thing.

The trade is perhaps baseball’s most fascinating event. The individuals involved suddenly have their lives uprooted and relocated somewhere entirely new, Twitter explodes, the Majestic factory in Easton, PA, begins minting never-before-seen jerseys and you venture to ESPN.com to berate Keith Law for his opinion on the trade because he invariably hates the team you root for. More often than not, these trades involve one party trading a known, short-term asset for one or more relatively unknown, long-term assets. We call these young players “prospects.”

Thanks to the internet, people know more about prospects than they ever have before. Sometimes this is lovely. Rangers fans know who Jurickson Profar is and have interesting discussions about what GM Jon Daniels will do with Elivs Andrus when Profar is ready for primetime. Roto freaks sit with their finger on the mouse waiting for Desmond Jennings to get called up so they can be the first to snatch him off waives and reap the financial benefits shortly thereafter. We also get to make jokes about Yeonis Cespedes’ core strength. That’s all fantastic. Inevitably, there’s also plenty of bad that comes with the obsession. People overreact, become prisoners of the moment and suddenly think the world of Junior Lake and very little ofDomonic Brown. Insufferable blowhards pester Kevin Goldstein, “How is Austin Romine not on this list? He’s a future star! Moron.” Just because you are passionate about something doesn’t necessarily mean you are well informed. Prospects teach us this all the time.

No matter how smart you are when it comes to prospects, you’re not that smart. None of us are. You’re predicting the futures of teenage children, many of who are simultaneously learning baseball and assimilating into an entirely new culture. Mistakes in judgment will be made. To show as much, I have compiled here a nice little case study. Thanks to the aggressive nature of General Manager Ruben Amaro (and his predecessor Pat Gillick) the Phillies have essentially traded away an entire farm system worth of talent over the past four years. This franchise’s sequence of events is prime for analysis. The Phillies went from a franchise suffering from a decade’s worth of mediocrity (Mike Lieberthal! Travis Lee!) and became one of baseball’s juggernauts. They’ve done a lot of this via “the trade.”

How did these trades shake out for each of the franchises involved? Did the prospects pan out the way we thought they would? With the Phillies, we have a large enough sample of deals and, most importantly, enough time has passed to talk about the principles involved with some degree of certainty. Hopefully you’ve been entrenched in prospectdom long enough to recollect your thoughts on these trades at their time of completion. In parentheses after each prospect’s name is their peak ranking in the Phillies system per Baseball America.

Phillies acquire Brad Lidge from Astros for Michael Bourn (Peak rank: #3), Geoff Geary and Mike Costanzo (#6)

Lidge had one magical season that undoubtedly helped the Phillies win a World Series. “Magical” is code for “he was very good but also very lucky.” Lidge has since suffered a drastic decline in stuff and physical health. Bourn became an above-average regular at a premium position, surpassing many a pundit’s expectations that he’d be a fourth outfielder. Astros GM Ed Wade traded him to the Braves this past season for too little. He’s an excellent player. Geary (a middle reliever) and Costanzo (who never saw the majors) are inconsequential. From a sheer regular season baseball value perspective, the Astros won this trade, but the Phils won a title, so we’ll call it a push.

At least Outman's stirrups are sweet.

Phillies acquire Joe Blanton from A’s for Adrian Cardenas (#2), Josh Outman (#4) and Matt Spencer

Blanton, his injuries and his conditioning have all been frustrating of late, but he too played a role that led to Philadelphia’s 2008 championship. Outman reached the majors and looked like he’d be a nice back-end starter until Tommy John surgery sucked some life out of his fastball. He was traded to the Rockies this week. His role is up in the air, but it’s safe to say he’s at least an un-embarrassing placeholder while the Rockies develop upgrades. Adrian Cardenas was named High School Player of the Year by Baseball America in 2006. At the time of this trade, he was the centerpiece. A once potential middle infielder with a plus bat, Cardenas isn’t good enough defensively to play anywhere in the infield (other than 1B) and his bat isn’t good enough to profile in left field. He’s only 23, but he looks like an extra guy at best. Spencer was a throw-in and has never made it to the majors.

Phillies acquire John Mayberry Jr. from Rangers for Greg Golson (#2)

Your classic change of scenery trade, Mayberry had been a first-round pick of the Mariners during Gillick’s tenure in Seattle but decided not to sign and went to college at Stanford instead. He was redrafted by the Rangers a few years later, again in round one. When you’ve been drafted twice in the first round, you’ve got tools to succeed. Mayberry clearly hasn’t optimized his talent for one reason or another (Stanford is notorious for irreparably altering hitters’ swings) but the change of scenery did him some good. He’s a fine fourth outfielder or platoon bat and showed some chops in center field last year. Mayberry whacks lefties, plays every outfield position pretty well and can moonlight at first base in a pinch. To get that for six years at a very low cost is a bargain. Golson had one of the most impressive tool packages you’ll ever see but could never sort it out at the dish. He’s an extra guy.

Phillies acquire Cliff Lee and Ben Francisco from Indians for Lou Marson (#3), Jason Donald (#4), Carlos Carrasco (#1) and Jason Knapp (#10)

I don’t have to tell you what Lee has been up to. Carrasco has always had top-of-the-rotation stuff but had the most glaring on-mound makeup issues I’ve ever seen. As soon as something went wrong, he’d unravel. While Carrasco has gotten things together enough that he’s not a basket case, he’s no world beater, either. He might yet put it together and yield above-average results, but it’s hard to believe he was once the crown jewel of the Phillies system. Knapp was the other piece in this deal with any real upside. A plus-plus fastball and a workhorse build meant Knapp had top-of-the-rotation potential as long he could be kept healthy and develop secondary stuff. That hasn’t happened. Knapp threw just 28 innings in 2010 and didn’t pitch in 2011. There’s still time for Knapp, he’s only 21, but it’s now much more likely he’s just a reliever. Marson has become a fine defensive catcher but profiles as a backup. Donald can’t play shortstop well enough to play every day and doesn’t hit enough for anywhere else. He’s bench fodder.

Phillies acquire Phillippe Aumont (#2), Tyson Gillies (#8) and JC Ramirez (#5) from Mariners for Cliff Lee

The Phillies found out in 2010 what the Mariners had known since 2008 had ended: Phillippe Aumont’s control issues relegate him to the bullpen. The control issues, which stem primarily from Aumont’s size and lack of athleticism to overcome it, are still there and rear their ugly head in frustrating spurts. The stuff, however, is nasty. Mid-90s heater with sink and a plus curveball mean Aumont will be a fine late-inning arm. He’ll arrive in Philly sometime this year. Gillies is still a work in progress after chronic injury issues derailed 2010 and 2011 for him. His slappy swing could mean he’ll have on-base issues in the future. He looks like a nice extra outfielder but if the approach somehow holds up and the defense is either elite in a corner or average in center, he’d be a decent regular. JC Ramirez has regressed to a point where it’s tough to consider him a prospect at all right now. His strikeout rate has plummeted. On a side note, I find it amusing that Seattle now employs both Justin Smoak and Jesus Montero, the prospects they were essentially deciding between when they ultimately chose to send Lee to the Rangers in 2010.

Phillies acquire Roy Halladay from Blue Jays for Michael Taylor (#3), Travis d’Arnaud (#4) and Kyle Drabek(#2)

Taylor was immediately spun to Oakland for Brett Wallace and has been a disappointment. He’s never had the kind of raw power you’d expect from someone built like an NFL tight end (thanks again, Stanford) but had average-or-above tools across the board. Billy Beane re-signed Coco Crisp and acquired Josh Reddick andSeth Smith this winter. Those aren’t exactly endorsements of Taylor’s future. Drabek, his plus fastball and power curveball in tow, looked like a future #2 starter. The Phillies certainly thought so, they deemed Drabek untouchable for quite a while before begrudgingly parting with him in order to land Doc. Drabek reached Toronto last year but couldn’t find the strike zone. He had some embarrassing walk rates before being sent back down to the minors. He’ll need to be rebuilt. Travis d’Arnaud is going to end up being the best player in this trade. The young catcher won Eastern League MVP this past year and looks like he might contend for big boy MVPs one day. In an online environment where we probably talk about prospects too much, we don’t talk about d’Arnaud enough.

Phillies acquire Roy Oswalt from Astros for JA Happ (#8), Jonathan Villar (#22) and Anthony Gose (#6)

Oswalt was miscast as an “ace” when he got to Philly. He’s now a mid-rotation guy whose fastball velocity has dipped enough that it can no longer make up for what he lacks in downhill plane. Teams seem hesitant to give him even a one-year deal thanks to natural decline and his balky back. Happ was always a back-end starter at best. Thanks to some great luck on balls in play, good run support and Ed Wade’s ineptitude as a GM, the Phillies sold way high on Happ after a nice rookie year. Shortstop Villar was just 19 years old at the time of the trade. He remains a bit of a project at the plate but strides are being made. Villar posted a .767 OPS at high-A Lancaster last year before being moved up to double-A as a 20-year-old. The defense will stick at shortstop, so if he can hit even a little bit, Villar will be a fine big leaguer. He’s still a work in progress, perhaps the least polished member of this entire piece. Upon acquiring the uber-toolsy Gose, Ed Wade immediately flipped him to Toronto for … Brett Wallace, again. Toronto made some mechanical alterations to Gose’s swing to improve his performance at the plate, lengthening his stride a bit. I’m relatively bearish on Gose, I just don’t believe in the bat, but he’s one of the toolsiest athletes I’ve ever seen. Gose’s defense in center field is good enough that he’d likely be a nice player no matter how anemic his offensive output might be. Just something to keep in the back of your mind should Gose crap out completely: The lefty touched 97mph on the mound in high school.

Phillies acquire Hunter Pence from Astros for Jonathan Singleton (#2), Jarred Cosart (#4) and Josh Zeid

Jonathan Singleton is just 20 years old, but all indications are he’s going to be a monster. The physicality, the swing, the approach, it’s all there. After struggling a bit at the beginning of last year (the Phillies were tinkering with his swing a bit), Singleton dominated high-A. He hit .333/.405/.512 after this trade. Polished for a hitter his age, Singleton could see a cup of coffee with the Astros at the end of 2013. Cosart has a nasty three-pitch mix, a mid- to upper-90s heater with arm side run, and a curve and change that flash above average. It’s top-of-the-rotation material. Enthusiasm for Cosart is curbed by his violent delivery, which some see as a harbinger of doom as it pertains to his health. He has had arm issues in the past. Zeid is a nice middle-relief prospect.

I spent three intro paragraphs alluding to the importance of objectivity and patience when it comes to talking about these young kids. Then, I revealed my unbridled zeal for Singleton and d’Arnaud. Does this make me a hypocrite? Yes. Yes, it does. I can’t help it, we’re talking about prospects. But look at what we have here: almost a trade a year for five years. Players of almost every career arc imaginable. Established big leaguers (Bourn), relative disappointments (Taylor, Aumont), future studs (d’Arnaud, Singleton), guys teetering between disappointment and stud (Drabek, Gose), change-of-scenery guys who worked out (Mayberry) and didn’t (Golson), and young kids about whom we still have plenty to learn. The ripples from this series of trades will be felt for the next decade or so. I hope this has shown you how volatile even the most highly regarded prospects can be and changes, for the better, the way you perceive them.

A Reaction to the Phillies Loss

I, like many Phillies fans, am sad and angry.  I am not, however, sad and angry for the same reasons all of you are, which makes me sadder.

There once was a young boy who loved ice cream.  Of course, lots of people love ice cream.  Everyone who isn’t lactose intolerant loves ice cream, and even those poor bastards would love it if they could.  But this boy loved ice cream so much that he became interested in exactly how the ice cream was made.  Are there weird flavors out there? What ingredients go into it? Does the quality of the cow impact the quality of the ice cream? How can we identify those cows? He started to become so obsessed with ice cream that he no longer enjoyed eating ice cream. Instead he enjoyed the art of ice cream making. 

This is what has happened to me with baseball.  I’ve become so immersed in the art of baseball processes that the results of those processes no longer impact me on an emotional level.  I felt this coming in 2008 when the Phillies won the World Series.  Eric Hinske struck out, I high fived my roommate, and then sat down on the couch with a smile on my face.  That was all.  I did not shotgun a beer with my next door neighbors.  I did not sprint aimlessly about the streets of Philadelphia.  I did not become overly emotional.  I don’t admonish those of you who did celebrate with the sort of epicurean fiesta a fan base deserves to enjoy when their team wins a championship.  Trust me, I really wanted to join all of you, I just couldn’t.  Instead I sat on my couch, not overjoyed, merely content.  I remember being consciously disappointed that I wasn’t enjoying the sports orgasm I thought it would be. It felt good, just not nearly as good as I had hoped.

Fast forward to last night.  The Phillies lose and I felt…tired? Exasperated? You know when it snows and you’re hoping to get off from school and instead you just have a 2-hour delay? It felt like that.  Nothing more.  It devastated me knowing that I wasn’t devastated by their loss. 

I know with each passing season I will grow increasingly numb to the Phillies’ exploits.  I don’t love baseball any less, it’s just a different kind of love.  If you told me, “Eric, you can have a job in a scouting department if you agree not to feel any emotion whatsoever for the Phillies ever again.” I’d make that trade in a heartbeat.  That’s why I’m desperate for them to win as soon as possible while I still feel something.

So forgive me for not being able to console you with my words here, but I don’t feel like you do right now.  I see and hear the output of your emotions and all I can do is work with that.  Forgive me if the following statements are a bit jumbled and random.  They are my responses to the outpouring of anger and sadness the fan base has begun to emit. 

The blame for this year’s loss can be spread across the roster like cream cheese on a bagel of shame.  Chase Utley made base running mistakes.  Ryan Howard and Hunter Pence didn’t get one base. Shane Victorino had defensive miscues. Carlos Ruiz and Placido Polanco were just plain awful.  That’s just the beginning of the list.

Please don’t say things like, “St. Louis just wanted it more.” Or “The Phillies just didn’t play hard enough.” That’s crazy.  Platitudes like that are thrown around by those who don’t know enough to come up with even the simplest analysis.  How about, “Wow, Chris Carpenter was really good.” He was.  Or, “Polanco looks too hurt to be useful.” Totally true.  Don’t think for one minute those guys didn’t want to win because they did.

The future is not bleak for the Phillies but it’s not the brightest, either.  The older players on the team are getting worse, not better.  The payroll is climbing to altitudes the likes of which we’ve never seen.  It’s going to be hard to retain guys like Ryan Madson (I’d let him walk) and Jimmy Rollins (I’d let him walk if he demands 3+ years). Young guys coming up? Sure, I like a bunch of them.  But sometimes we’re wrong about those guys.  If they’re going to win a World Series, the Phillies will need a sound process by which they make their decisions, relatively good health, luck, a few surprise performances from guys you wouldn’t expect it from and at some point will have to overcome some adversity. 

Can they do it? Sure.  Once you get to the playoffs the sample size is so small that anything can happen.  Hell, the Orioles finished 28 games out of first in the AL East.  That means they lost only 1 more game per week than the Yankees. So in a 7 game sample (the length of a series) the Orioles are 1 game worse than the Yankees.  The window is closing slowly for the Phillies.  Maybe by the time it slams shut, I won’t care at all.  Unless I have exchanged my love for the Phillies for a scouting job by then, I sure hope not.  

Pigs to the Bigs: Profiling the Phillies September Call Ups

Immediately after the Lehigh Valley IronPigs were eliminated from the playoffs I received a text message alerting as to me who the Phillies had called up.  I thought I’d let everyone know exactly what the Phillies were getting down the stretch in those guys.

Brandon Moss

Moss was probably the best IronPig player this year.  He has fringe average tools across the board.  Average power, speed, defense, plate discipline, all sorts of stuff that makes you great at AAA.  He’d probably make most 25 man rosters as a bench guy.  He really closes himself off with his stride, leading me to believe he’ll struggle with well placed inside pitches. 

Erik Kratz

Kratz is the right catcher to call up.  Some other employees and I were debating whether Dane Sardinha or Kratz would be called up and why.  It was an interesting conversation to have since Kratz and Sardinha are diametric opposites.  Sardinha is a terrific defender while Kratz is atrocious behind the plate but the better hitter of the two.  Kratz has a long, slow stroke but is bull strong and has above average pull power.  He can be beaten by breaking balls that run away from him.  As I said before, he’s a defensive liability.  I routinely get pop times from Kratz in the 2.2s.  That’s slow.  He’ll pinch hit in certain situations but I’d be surprised if he got even one start down the stretch.  Brian Schneider could use the reps in case he’s pressed into playoff action and it would be foolish for Charlie Manuel to let Kratz take those innings away from Schneider.

Joe Savery

This is very interesting.  Savery was drafted as a pitcher out of Rice University in 2007’s first round.  The Phils were taking a medical risk on Savery who was coming off a surgery (as if drafting a pitcher from Rice wasn’t risky enough…they’re all overworked in college and get hurt).  He didn’t pan out.  His fastball velocity dipped to the mid 80s, he wasn’t accelerating his arm at all, and he was walking lots of hitters.  It was a disaster.  This year the Phillies decided to put a bat in his hands full time (Savery also played 1B at Rice and was a good hitter) and Savery responded by hitting well at High-A before falling off at upper levels.  Roster crunches and injuries pressed Savery back into action as a pitcher at AAA.  Suddenly, his velocity is in the low 90s.  He touched 93mph Friday night.  He hasn’t thrown that hard since his freshman year of college.  He also throws an upper 70s/low 80s breaking ball which needs refining.  He’s no longer the Fastball, Curveball, Changeup guy he was in college.  He’ll be exclusively Fastball/Slider for now if the Phils are smart.  He may carve out a role as a multi-inning lefty in the Phillies bullpen next year.  He gets a short audition now.

Justin De Fratus

Another guy auditioning for a bullpen spot next year.  De Fratus mixes a mid-90s fastball with a low 80s slider.  Both can get swings and misses.  He has an athletic delivery and uses his lower half well.  He’s a future big league reliever and I like the idea of giving him some low-pressure innings in the bigs this year.

Domonic Brown

Brownie’s hand is, to me, clearly not healed.  He’s had trouble squeezing fly balls in his glove, he doesn’t show the kind of batting practice power he’s shown in the past, his bat is slower and I’ve even seen kickback on his bat against plus velocity.  The broken hand won’t be healed until next season and Brown won’t be an asset until then.  He should be left off the playoff roster.  Let’s hope the kid’s confidence has been broken and he comes back to claim the job in LF next season.