Saturday, February 19, 2011

Rows of Teeth: Remaking a Classic

Let me start off by saying that I would not be in favor of a Jaws remake. The original is one of my favorite movies ever and is just one of those things I find sacred and untouchable. If you haven’t seen it, you’re an asshole. If you have a reason for not seeing it, like you don’t like scary movies, you’re a pussy asshole. See it, it’s just a movie, and when it’s over you’ll get up off the couch and be alive and in one piece just as you were before you saw the movie, because you’re on land and sharks can’t walk on land….as far as we know.


Just because I don’t think it should be re-made doesn’t mean it won’t be. When you think about it, it’s a prime candidate to be worked over again. The star of the movie (the shark) doesn’t do it for audiences anymore. It looks silly. Today’s technology can help fix that. Also, many of the communication issues the guys face out on the boat would probably be solved by cell phones, so a redone script could help the movie stand the test of time. Also, Hollywood loves to dusk off artifacts, even when those artifacts are pieces of shit and try to recycle them to make a quick buck without burning any real creative calories (I’m looking at you, Sid and Marty Krofft). A new Jaws would make a ton of money, even if it sucks. Guess which half of that previous statement the suits at Universal are more concerned with?

Let’s say I’m asked to make some decisions about the new movie, because, by the time they decide to remake it I’ll be wildly famous and influential (so 2013 at the latest). Here are the things I’d implement and the actors I’d cast for the roles:



Clause #1: The shark in the new movie cannot be shown more than the shark in the old movie.

Much of the fear created in the first movie comes from fear of the unknown. We don’t see the shark for most of the movie, we just learn to associate John Williams’ understated score with the shark’s presence. That association is betrayed later in the movie, which freaks viewers out even more because now we don’t know when the hell the shark is around. This occurred out of necessity, since Spielberg’s animatronic shark was always malfunctioning due to the saltwater, it couldn’t be relied upon for filming. Let’s keep it that way. Shark appearances kept to a minimum.


Clause #2: Matt Hooper has an affair with Mrs. Ellen Brody

Staying true to Peter Benchley’s original novel, in my movie Chief Brody’s busy schedule pulls him away from his wife and family, leaving Ellen lonely and feeling unwanted. She searches for someone to desire her and runs into the Hooper. Hooper is some things Chief Brody is not, super good looking and rich. The trist is short lived as they mutually decide to end things when Ellen realizes her mistake and Hooper doesn’t want to destroy his budding friendship with Martin, or his new friend’s marriage. So the audience likes Hooper, just not as much as we do in the first movie. Richard Dreyfuss is super likeable in the original and I’m not even going to try to duplicate that.



Clause #3: Since Hooper is no longer the smile inducing drug that he was in the first movie, we replace that by expanding the role of Deputy Hendricks. (more on this later)

Clause #4: The movie has to be set in the 1970s

This is important for two reasons. First, Cell Phones would solve a lot of the problems that occur in the first movie so we can’t have that. Some complicated writing could be done to work around it but it’s much easier to set the film in the pre- cell late 70s instead. The second problem this solves is Quint’s age. If the movie were to be set today then Quint would have to be about 75 years old, since he’d have been around 20 during the sinking of the USS Indianapolis. That experience is far too important to Quint’s character to work around, so we won’t. Of course, this means we need to beat viewers over the head with signals of the decade and maybe even create a reason that these events don’t become widely publicized.



The Cast:



Chief Martin Brody (Don Cheadle)

It makes sense. Cheadle has already done a great job playing “Leader of the Victims” in Hotel Rwanda, for which he was Oscar Nominated, so we know he can play the character. I also like the dynamic of a black police chief in a 1970s New England town. Remember, Brody comes to tiny Amity from New York to be the police chief. He is seen as an outsider by the locals, who don’t really trust him, and is terrified of the water. Why not add deep seated racial tension to his list of problems? I also like Cheadle because he is likeable enough to make the audience care about his safety and livelihood, but not so famous that he undermines your suspension of disbelief (like Will Smith, whom I also considered, would have).



Ellen Brody (Vanessa Williams)


A picture of Stacey Dash because...why not

Williams’ acting is fine. She was Emmy nominated this past year. She and Cheadle are close in age (1 year apart) and she’s hot. I like the idea that she is way hotter than Chief Brody but married him for the right reasons. She could have had any guy she wanted but chose Martin because of his character and personality. This makes her affair with Hooper viable, because she is getting a taste of all the things she passed up on to be with Martin. The other two finalists for this role were Stacey Dash (who I haven’t seen in anything since Clueless {that Kanye video doesn’t count} and I’m not confident enough to pick her based solely on that) and Julianne Moore who has already played a sympathetic adulterer (Kids Are Alright) and I buy her in an interracial relationship. Plus, she could act the shit out of Ellen Brody. So Moore is the best actor in the bunch, Dash fits best as the head cheerleader, prom queen beauty (go look at her Playboy spread) and Williams is somewhere in between.

Mayor Vaughn (Stanley Tucci)

In the first movie Mayor Vaughn is ignorant and misguided, not realizing how serious the shark problem really is. In my movie, Mayor Vaughn is more malicious. He is well aware of how dangerous this shark is but cares far more for the lucrative summer dollars the July 4th weekend brings. He want the citizens of Amity to be aware of the danger and avoid the water, but cares not about the tourists looking to spend the weekend at the beach. In the original the viewers are simply frustrated with the mayor, in this version they grow to loathe him. Tucci’s a fine actor with terrific range. He’d get the job done. (also considered: Oliver Platt, who did a fine job playing a power hungy, money loving shit in The Bronx is Burning)



Deputy Hendricks (Seth Rogen)

We don’t see a lot of Hendricks in the original aside from the first half hour where he is assigned random tasks. Hendricks in an islander, one the citizens of Amity have known since he was young, and it’s apparent he has people’s attention and respect solely because of this even though he is totally incompetent. In my film, as I mentioned before, this role will be expanded. I want Hendricks to be a lovable goof, one that likely got to the police deputy job thanks to some form of nepotism. He’s the kind of cop (remember, he and Chief Brody are the only 2 police in town since Amity is so small) that won’t bust the local teens for smoking pot and simply “confiscate it” on his own. Super laid back, he is the foil to the very uptight Chief Brody. Maybe he doesn’t even get realize how serious the whole shark thing is until it he sees it for himself when it gets into the estuary halfway through the movie. He provides the comic relief that Hooper provided in the first film. Hendricks matures as the movie goes on thanks to Chief Brody’s tutelage and the weight of their predicament while he helps Brody to chill out, not be such a douche and reconnect with his wife. The seminal bonding moment occurs when Brody and Hendricks share a joint after cutting open the wrongfully accused Tiger Shark in their search for Alex Kintner. Seth Rogen’s weight loss has him looking younger which is good for this role (he’s only 26 or something in real life but looks at least 30) and I’m pretty sure he won’t have to do a ton of character research to play a stoner, though I bet he’ll do the research anyway.



Matt Hooper (Robert Downey Jr.)

The movie lacks true star power to this point and here is where it gets a little more kick. Hooper needs to be a handsome trust fund baby who has taken full advantage of his family’s wealth and gotten hiself edgeumacated. He’s super smart and he knows it. He’s very handsome and he knows it. He’s rarely wrong has all the material things a person could ask for. However, he’s a super workaholic and has never allowed himself to enjoy his success. He’s addicted to some high end drug, like ecstasy which allows him to feel some chemically induced sense of intimacy with others, intimacy he could never legitimately create on his own because he’s too busy. He and Brody have the same problem with being over worked which is where their bond begins. The difference is Brody has to work as hard as he does to take care of his family, while Hooper has to work as hard as he does because of some deep seated emotional issues. Maybe his parents were very hard on him. Maybe some girl he loved didn’t think he’d amount to anything and he’s spent his life trying to prove her wrong. It could be anything, but he’s not quite right. Downey is a good actor and I’m sure he’d be good. I also considered James Franco and Sam Rockwell.



Quint (Gary Oldman)

Quint seeks a life of vengeance after the incident he endures on the USS Indianapolis, which is a true historical occurrence. The trauma warps his mind. I wouldn’t want to change his character at all. Gary Oldman may not have the physicality to make Quint as intimidating as Robert Shaw did in the original so I’d ask him to put on some weight, but he certainly has the acting pedigree to pull it off. I have nothing else to say about this part.

Alex Kintner (Justin Bieber)

Kintner is the shark's second known victim.  He begs his mom to stay in the water for a while longer and the decision turns out to be fatal.  Now would I really cast Bieber for the role? No. His presence would make the death less believeable and campy.  It'd just be fun to watch the reactions of his fan base while he is torn to bits.  I'd cast a random unknown kid.


Okay, I’ve clearly spent way too much time think about this hypothetical film, which will never get made. I encourage comments and suggestions from readers, so I don't feel like a total loser who wasted a couple hours on this post.

Thursday, February 10, 2011

Brown Noise: A Grass Roots Movement for Logic in Right

Let’s not over think this, people. Heading into Spring Training your beloved Phillies are one of the favorites to win the World Series, they have baseball’s best rotation, the best 2nd baseman on the planet, one of the best defensive shortstops on the planet, and players with at least one elite skill all the way down the lineup (Chooch: Plate Discipline, Howard: Power, Polanco: Contact and Defense, Victorino: Arm and Speed, Ibanez: Baldness). Despite raw talent as good as anyone in the league, ongoing discourse as to who the starting right fielder should be rages on. It’s not that hard.


No matter what happens in Spring Training, Domonic Brown should be your starting Right Fielder on Opening Day. And not in some bullshit platoon, either. I want to be confident in Ruben Amaro Jr., who has done well to regain my trust of late, but when rumors surface that Phillies decision makers are seriously considering a Ben Francisco/John Mayberry/Ross Gload timeshare in right, I want to vomit.

Is Brown a finished product? That depends what you mean by finished product. If to you finished product means, “He is as good now as he’ll ever be and can’t get any better” then no, he’s not a finished product, he still has plenty of room to improve. If you think finished product means. “He has nothing left to learn from minor league pitching” then yes, he’s golden brown on top.

Brownie demolished pitching at AA and AAA last year and is not going to learn how to hit major league quality changeups and sliders in the minors. Any time Brown spends with the Iron Pigs this year is a colossal waste of time, like a talented surgeon spending another year doing nothing but tonsillectomies.

If you’re worried about the pedestrian numbers Brown posted in limited Major League at-bats last year, take a deep breath and listen to reason. He wasn’t getting regular at-bats, his trips to the plate were sporadic. He never had a chance to get into rhythm. I think he should’ve been playing left field every day, instead of Ibanez’s corpse, but we’re past that. In addition, the sample size of plate appearances is far too small to draw any conclusions from.

I don’t expect Brown to set the world afire right away. There will be growing pains. But he is so physically talented that even while he’s learning on the fly (his defensive reads need work as do his throwing mechanics) he’ll be better than Gload or Francisco or Mayberry.

I’d rather have Dom go through his adjustment period in April and be good from May on than come up in June, have the same adjustment period a few months later and only be good from July on. The sooner he comes up, the sooner he becomes an All Star, and he will be an All Star one day.

So whenever this issue comes up around your water cooler or bar stool, I want you all to be total dicks and monopolize the conversation, beating the uninformed idiots over the head with Bunyanesque stories of Domonic Brown’s talents until the world agrees with us. Exhalt from your pinstriped towers about smart player development.  Rise and be worthy of this historical hour.  It is for the greater good. Aces and Catchers report this weekend, bitches.

Friday, February 4, 2011

NFL Draft Prospect Scouting Report: Will Rackley

Will Rackley


Position: Guard/Tackle

School: Lehigh

Height: 6’4”

Weight: 310lbs

Before you read this scouting report you have to know, I’m really rooting for Will Rackley. I want him to be a good NFL player. I’ve always had irrationally high hopes for small school guys (Jahri Evans, Jacoby Jones, Lawrence Sidbury, etc.) and Rackley is also a local guy so I’m doubly stoked on him. I like local, small school guys so much that when Corey Huerta declares for the NBA draft after his senior season I’ll probably write a full page scouting report detailing why he should be a lottery pick. I’m a sucker for underdogs. That said, I’ll do my best to stay as objective as possible here.

Run Blocking: Rackley is not particularly fast off of the ball but he’s not too slow either. He is strong and plays with good leverage, rarely getting pushed back by opposing linemen. He places his hands well and is swift in hunting down second level defenders that are straight ahead of him. The general consensus with Rackley is that he’ll move to guard in the pros so we’ll have to wait until he does some combine drills where he’s moving in space to get a full gauge on his athleticism when it comes to things like pulling and kicking out. Another problem with judging run blocking for Rackley is sample size. Other than seeing him in person once, the only film I have on him is the East West Shrine game. He played most of the second half and the East only ran the ball a few times, and some of those were draw plays. In the small sample I saw he looks good but ideally I’d like to see more.

Pass Blocking: Stands straight up coming off the ball instead of exploding at a 45 degree angle into his kick slide. This is the primary reason he has no chance at sticking at tackle in the pros. It takes him too long before he gets a-kickin’ and even once he does he is too slow to stay in front of anyone. You can see it in the video below. In the NFL, on obvious passing downs, Rackley will be able to start plays in a two point stance, already in the upright position he loses time getting into post-snap. But his feet are still too slow to play on the outside.

Other Stuff: Rackley isn’t slapped together like Michael Oher or Joe Thomas. Don’t get me wrong he’s got the physical presence to play on Sundays, and he’ll likely improve upon his physique once he has access to an NFL weight room, but right now he’s got room to improve. I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention the lack of elite competition Rackley has faced, so growing pains are inevitable at first.

My Prediction: Rackley will be a late round pick in the 5th-7th rounds, a raw prospect with potential to be an above average starter at guard one day. I think he’ll spend the prime of his career as a decent starter (think Deuce Lutui) and the time before and after that as a primary backup interior lineman. It’d be cool to see him work at center eventually, versatility is always nice. I also think there’s more than a 1 in 32 chance the Eagles take him which increases his potential thanks to the excellent coaching he’ll receive from Howard Mudd (and I’m sure Juan Castillo will still feel free to give suggestions). No matter what, I’m rooting for Will Rackley.


Wednesday, January 26, 2011

Sex on the Bandwagon: Theorizing The Popularity of the Pittsburgh Steelers


 I know, I know, just don't look at the middle one.
“Pittsburgh Steelers fans travel well”

You probably hear it several times every football season.  It speaks to the abnormally large number of Steelers fans that can be found at every NFL road game.  I’ve been to two games in which the Steelers were the road team and in both cases I was blown away by how many fans they had in attendance.  Is it possible that it just SEEMS like there are more of them because they are also abnormally annoying?  That’s unlikely.  I wanted to think about the reasons the Steelers have been able to overcome their rather pedestrian market size (Pittsburgh is 22nd in the country) to have the NFL’s most rabid fan base.  These are my thoughts.



After World War II, American soldiers came home to their pining wives.  They hadn’t seen each other in quite some time and, naturally, both parties craved some sweet, sweet love making.  There was a lot of banging going on.  This resulted in what we refer to as “The Baby Boom.”  It was a major spike in our country’s birth rate.  The Baby Boom lasted from around 1946 to 1957 when women started faking headaches and “feeling tired” again.  Population rates started to dip back down to normal.  

Graph is purposefully huge

Flash forward, Lost style, to 1970.  The Baby Boomers are now between 13 and 24 years old.  By the end of the decade, they will be between 23 and 34 years old.  Prime time for them to start families of their own.  Corresponding with this exponential growth in population are several factors.

 
First off, color TVs became common in most American homes.  Cable subscriptions in America tripled between 1970 and 1979.  No longer were people forced to squint at Jackie Gleason, they could now simply enjoy how deliciously offensive Archie Bunker was (when you think about it, racially charged jokes become more diverse in color when you can differentiate between races more readily I am going to hell).  Yes, TV was maturing, but it was nowhere near the monster we have today.  The channel selection was minimal, only a few to go around, and so the big time networks dominated.



Secondly, the NFL became the NFL.  In 1970 the NFL and AFL merged, separated the league into two conferences with CBS broadcasting the NFC games and NBC broadcasting the AFC games.  ABC broadcasted Monday Night Football for the first time in…..yup, 1970.  So football is on TV in its modern format and it is in color.  Production value on TV is better and programs are more stimulating to watch.  We took a huge step forward in the quest to make watching games at home more fun than watching them in person (we are there now, but that’s an entirely different post).  

 Look at that little monkey broadcast

So far we have this run on sentence: This monstrous generation is now in a key age range (either highly impressionable teenagers or young adults getting their first taste of disposable income) with access to color TVs and the NFL looks AWESOME in color, way better than in black and white, and it is being shoved down their throats on two of their only handful of channels every Sunday.  

 Jack Lambert

You already know where this is going.  The Steelers were the dynasty of the 1970s.  How many things come to mind when I say, “70s Steelers”?  A dozen hall of fame names, one of the best nicknames in all of sports, 4 Super Bowl Championships, 7 division titles and other stuff I’ve left out.  The Steelers were great and they were on TV a lot.  The Baby Boomer generation fell in love with the Steelers.  

 This commercial would only work with someone the country loved.  Do you think Nixon could have sold Coke like Mean Joe?  Fuck no.

They had kids (those kids are now in their forties) and they had kids (today’s teenagers).  They’re likely to be Steelers fans as well.  It is perfectly natural for people to be attracted to winning teams, it happens all the time.  I've seen it first hand here in Philly as the city beams over the Phillies.  However, sports history has never seen a bandwagon born on this great a scale and it never will again.  The dawn of free agency and the salary cap make it nearly impossible for a team to have as dominant a 10 year run as the Steelers did, and a team that belongs to an entire generation is a freak thing of the past.  
 
So during the next week and a half leading up to the Super Bowl when you inevitably hear some say something complementary about the Steelers fan base, you can feel free to explain to that person why it is so: War, Sex and Television

Sunday, January 16, 2011

NFL Draft Prospect Scouting Report: Da'Quan Bowers

Da’Quan Bowers


Position: Defensive End

School: Clemson

Height: 6’4”

Weight: 280lbs



Bowers sits atop many an “expert” draft board. He has the prototypical size, speed and athletic ability you look for in a dominant pass rusher. I don’t have to tell you how important it is to put pressure on the QB in today’s NFL. You know stud D-ends come at a premium, so it wouldn’t surprise me if Bowers came off the board in the top 5. In fact, he may go #1. Last time the Carolina Panthers were this bad, they began their rebuilding process by selecting a defensive end with similar physical characteristics from a local school (Julius Peppers), and two years later they were in the Super Bowl. Caveat emptor, Carolina.

Pass Rushing Ability: Bowers has great straight line speed, especially for a 280lb guy, but he has no moves. One can watch the entire video below and he does nothing more than bull rush the opposing blockers to no avail. If he’s not strong enough to run through Olinemen in college, he won’t do it in the NFL. He doesn’t even try to blow by anyone up field. Florida State felt comfortable blocking him 1 on 1 with a Tight End several times and he never got off the block. His sack in this game came on an O-line miscommunication when Clemson showed a rare 3 down lineman look and brought a strong side overload blitz. As far as being a 1 on 1 pass rushing 4-3 end, I don’t think Bowers can do it at the next level unless he receives some serious coaching. I’ll get into what I think he can succeed at later.

Against the Run: Bowers is strong enough that lineman don’t blow him off the line but he’s not strong enough to shed blocks by throwing blockers to the side. On toss sweeps to his side, Bowers does a good job of moving laterally, forcing the runningback to continue running toward the sideline and preventing him from getting actual yardage while other defenders swarm to the ball. His speed makes him good in backside pursuit but in order to pursue from the back side Bowers would need to break contain which makes the defense susceptible to end-arounds and bootlegs. I don’t see Bowers as a liability against the run, but I don’t see him as much of an asset, either.

Other: Has missed some time due to injury but none due to off the field stupidity. Clemson used him at both ends of the line and even kicked him inside to defensive tackle in obvious passing situations. I think Bowers could excel in the NFL as a strong side 3-4 outside linebacker. He can use his quick first step and speed to get up-field and force the offensive tackle to follow him there and then use his strength to rip back underneath the now off balance lineman. He’s good enough against the run to hold up there as well. Of course, we’ll have to wait for the combine or pro day to see if Bowers is comfortable in a two point stance and whether or not he can back pedal and cover tight ends. As a Panthers fan, I’d be very upset if they took Bowers #1. I’m not buying it, and while I’m in the minority, I’m comfortable with my assessment.

Tuesday, January 11, 2011

Arizona Fall League Scouting Report: Trayvon Robinson

Trayvon Robinson OF (Los Angeles Dodgers)


Age: 23

Bats: Switch

Height: 5’10”

Weight: 175lbs

From: Crenshaw High School (10th round of 2005 draft)

Sometimes teams will draft high schoolers with a bevy of physical tools but little in the way of baseball skill. These are your typical boom or bust type picks, and lots of times these guys take more time to reach the majors than your polished college players (think about how polished Rick Porcello was coming out of high school vs how raw Phillipe Aumont still is). Trayvon Robinson is one of those raw, physically gifted athletes that needed time. Actually, Robinson didn’t even start switch hitting until after he was drafted. Grab a bat and swing it from your weak side. Try not to look like an idiot. Think about how goofy you look and now imagine trying to hit pro pitching like that.

Robinson spent 2006-2008 mired in prospect limbo waiting to yield results. In 2009 he finally broke out hitting .306 with a .375 OBP and .500 Slg% at Hi A before moving to AA. He hit more HRs that year than he did in his previous four years combined. He also stole 43 bases. The Dodgers already have

Offense:

Robsinson hits well from both sides of the plate but you can tell in BP that he has more power from the right side. His swing mechanics are fine. What he sometimes has a problem with are his feet and what he does pre-swing. In the batting practice video below you can see he is well out in front of the first few pitches before he starts to adjust. His front foot is hanging in the air far too long and throwing off the timing of his swing. That’s too many moving parts to control at once which makes it difficult to have a fundamentally sound swing. In the second video, you can see his front foot is down much earlier. This doesn’t hinder his hip rotation, which is where a lot of swing power comes from. The Dodgers have worked with his pre-swing motions.

Robinson’s walk rate has also vastly improved. Instead of 3 walks every 30 plate appearances, Robinson is walking 3 times every 20 Pas. That may not seem like much but over the course of a season it is the difference between a .350OBP and a .400 OBP, which he posted in 2010. He was a little too patient when I saw him in Arizona, striking out looking 3 times in the two games I saw him play.

Combine those on base skills with Robinson’s elite speed (40 steals each of the last 3 years) and you’ve got a potential leadoff guy with some power.



Defense:

Robinson has the physical tools to play in CF; great speed and an average arm. However, he doesn’t always take great routes to ball and the Dodgers already have a CF in place. He’d be above average in LF and I’d expect him to play their regularly for the Dodgers by late July.



Tuesday, January 4, 2011

NFL Draft Prospect Scouting Report: Andrew Luck

Andrew Luck


Position: QB

School: Stanford

Height: 6’4”

Weight: 235lbs

Historically, I’ve had trouble evaluating QBs. To have trouble assessing those who play the single most important position in all of sports does not bode well for a future in an NFL front office (which is why I’ve transitioned toward baseball). However, the Carolina Panthers’ collective futility and 1st overall pick in the upcoming draft has me revisiting the process of scouting college signal callers because after watching Jimmy Clausen for 5 minutes you know they really need one.

This brings us to Luck, who is first on lots of expert draft boards. I sat down with a couple people to watch him play in the Orange Bowl and make a judgment call on his abilities.

In the Huddle:

Stanford has an extensive playbook. Its depth is such that it necessitates that Luck wear a wrist band with a list of plays on it. In fact, the playbook is so deep that Stanford’s Center has to wear a wristband as well because not all of the plays will fit on just one wristband. Plenty of NFL QBs lean on a similar crutch, and it’s not like they have a full load of classes and extracurriculars on their plate. Luck should have no problem communicating plays to teammates on Sundays.

Pre Snap:

Stanford uses a lot of pre snap movement, often shifting multiple players at a time. I noticed most of the time Stanford ran the ball post shift, so it is unclear if Luck is using this movement to identify coverages or if it is just a cog to confuse the defense. Either way, the foundation for using motion to identify coverage, a very valuable asset for an NFL QB, is in place.

Reading Coverages:

Virginia Tech rarely played straight man to man. They were mostly in zone coverage or man to man on the WRs on the outside with two deep safeties and the linebackers in intermediate zones. Luck held onto the ball longer than I’d like to see, especially early in the game. As the game went on he was getting rid of it more quickly. Either he was having trouble making his reads or his WRs weren’t getting open. Whatever the case, it was encouraging to see Luck adjust and improve as the game went on. It’s also possible he was nervous. 21 year olds get nervous when they have to do something in front of a few million people.

Pocket Presence:

Luck moves well in the pocket, and is very athletic and mobile when he needs to be. He wasn’t presented with heavy blitzes so I can’t determine how he would respond to them.

Throwing the Ball:

Luck’s mechanics were poor early in the game. His stationary mechanics were funky and he was jumping when he threw the ball on rollouts. Later in the game he improved dramatically. He has a good arm, not elite but more than good enough for the NFL. He is accurate in the pocket but tends to underthrow guys a little bit when he’s on the run. He showed good touch on short passes. Once he decides to throw the ball, it is out of his hands quickly.

Intangibles:

Everything seems in check. He seems to have a good head on his shoulders. I highly doubt he’ll get into fights at strip clubs or murder more than one drifter during his career.

Advanced Metrics:

The Lewin Career Forecast (a regression analysis that values completion% and games started in college as the most influential factors in determining a QB’s NFL success) may not be optimistic about Luck. Luck only has 26 or 27 games started for his career and a poor completion% last year (56%) drags his career numbers down. If Luck is a bust, it’s a notch in the belt of this metric. The specifics (who compares to Luck in this aspect and how they turned out) I’ll know closer to the draft.


How sexy is this?


Prediction:

He’ll go #1 if he comes out. He reminds me of Aaron Rodgers, built thicker and stronger and more durable.