Friday, May 27, 2011

BuggyWhip Bugaboo: Why Coaches Feel Weird About the Domonic Brown Swing and Why They Shouldn't

This photo looks eerily similar to Michelangelo's "Creation of Adam".  Coincidence?  I think not.
Domonic Brown’s return to the majors this week gives fans their first, real, big league look at the young outfielder with some semblance of normalcy.  No longer is his growth encroached upon by injuries, phantom platoon issues, spotty playing time or brainless coaches tinkering with his swing.  He has carte blanche to kick some ass without his development being infringed upon.  Despite the fact that Brown has been smashing balls with extreme prejudice this week (his low BA is the result of bad luck in a small sample.  It’s not his fault he’s crushing balls that Drew Stubbs is intercepting like some sort of government defense missile) baseball pundits are still uncomfortable with his swing and are expressing it in TV broadcasts, post game shows and radio spots.  They’re wrong.  They have Swing Xenophobia.  Let me quell your doubts, if you have any, about the viability of Brownie’s swing at the big league level, by breaking it down piece by piece. 


You should refer to the above video several times while reading through this paragraph to look for the things I’m talking about.  It’s a nice, long at-bat from the Arizona Fall League of 2009, so click play and let it run as you read, taking peeks back to the video when the pitches are about to be thrown.  

Let’s start with Brown’s stance.  A fuss is made about the height of his hands, which start up around his eyes.  Take a second to get into your own batting stance.  Where are your hands?  They’re probably up around your shoulders.  Move them up to your eye level.  Does that feel incredibly uncomfortable?  Probably not, and it certainly doesn’t for me.  Even if his stance was incredibly unorthodox (which it’s not) it’s not as if people with weird stances haven’t succeeded in the past.  Hell, Cal Ripken Jr. had more batting stances than Arnold Schwarzenegger has illegitimate children and he was a no girly-man at the dish.  So we’re over Brown’s stance.

Now let’s look at the beginning of his swing.  It appears Brown starts his swing, at least a little bit, during just about every pitch.  It was a concern for me at first.  I thought maybe he had trouble with pitch recognition and was constantly checking his swing.  Turns out it’s just something he kinda does.  It’s not without its benefits.  It allows him to spoil pitches he’s late to recognize as strikes because his bat is already half way there. 
If Brownie decides he wants to let loose with a full swing, he accelerates his bat at such an impressive rate that it makes up for that slower start.  You can see it in the video.  His bat starts slow and then explodes through the hitting zone.  He is well balanced and rotates his hips, an indication of power potential.
Brown’s swing is a little unorthodox, sure, but he is so freakishly athletic (he had a scholarship to play baseball and football for The U but opted to sign with the Phils) that he makes it work.  So Greg Gross, there’s no reason to try to change something that Brown’s been successful with for the past 5 years just because you can’t wrap your head around it.

Friday, May 13, 2011

MLB Prospect Scouting Report: Austin Hyatt

Austin Hyatt (Philadelphia Phillies Pitcher)


Age: 25
Throws: Right
Height: 6’2”
Weight: 185lbs
From: Alabama (drafted in the 15th round of the 2009 draft)

Hyatt was drafted by the Braves straight out of high school but chose to attend Alabama instead. He’s had success across every pro level he experienced, striking out more than a batter per inning at each stop and earning Florida State League Pitcher of the Year honors in 2010. While his numbers are encouraging, enthusiasm for Hyatt’s future is tempered by his advanced age.

Fastball:

Hyatt’s fastball is fringe average. His velocity sits in the high 80s, touching 92 at its peak. It has some late movement and he commands it exceptionally well to his arm side. Hyatt’s command of the heater is crucial to the pitch’s viability and his success overall. The raw velocity and movement is not enough to get big leaguers out unless it’s well placed.

Changeup:

Hyatt’s best pitch, the low 80s offering garnered several swings and misses on Wednesday night. Hyatt’s arm speed on the change is identical to that of his fastball making them indiscernible from one another out of his hand. He gets terrific fade and run out of it at times, but this movement is a bit inconsistent, it comes and goes. He uses it almost exclusively as a strikeout pitch down beneath the strike zone, so it’s not something he can use early in counts to get ahead of hitter, at least not yet.

Slider:

Hyatt’s slider is unimpressive. Sitting in the low 80s, it looks more like a cutter than a real wipeout slider. He’ll need to improve this pitch or find something else to get righties out. He really struggled to get right handed hitters out in the outing I saw.

Mechanics:

The arm action is nothing to write home about. It’s not ultra-violent (like Max Scherzer’s) nor is it effortlessly smooth (like Neftali Feliz). The delivery as a whole seems very simple, easily repeatable and most of the time allows Hyatt to pitch with good control. However, there were instances when his elbow would pronate late, causing him to leave the ball up in the zone, and he’d get hit hard. He needs to iron that shit out.

Overall, Hyatt’s lacks a third pitch. Oddly, it happens to be a pitch to get right handed hitters out. While typically with two pitch guys, I’d say they’re better off in the bullpen, Hyatt’s stuff is not conducive of that sort of move. His future really depends on him developing elite command, which is possible, but unlikely. If I had to bet on how he ends up, I’d say a AAA depth guy who comes up to make a spot start here and there due to injury.

Wednesday, May 4, 2011

MLB Prospect Scouting Report: Adeiny Hechavarria


Adeiny Hechavarria (Toronto Blue Jays SS)


Age: 22
Bats: Right
Height: 5’11”
Weight: 180lbs
From: Cuba


Hechavarria was handed a hefty 4 year, $10 million contract from the Blue Jays which included a $4 million signing bonus that is the largest in team history. Despite struggling to hit in his pro debut at High-A ball last year, the Jays decided to promote him to AA based on his defense. I didn’t get a chance to see him at the Arizona Fall League since Red Sox SS prospect Jose Iglesias started in all the games I attended. I traveled to Reading on Tuesday night to finally get a look at him.

Offense:


Hechavarria hits lead off for New Hampshire but has no lead off skills. He saw a total of 6 pitches in his first four at-bats last night, all of them strikes. The only pitch he didn’t swing at, that wasn’t a called strike, was a pitch that nearly hit his shin. If it would have been physically possible for him to swing at it while he simultaneously dodged the pitch, I have no doubt he would have. Hechavarria swung at pitches well out of the zone several times, swung at the first pitch in 4 out of his 5 at-bats and failed to hit the ball out of the infield even once. He has no patience, no feel for the strike zone and no power. His body isn’t projectable in any way so I don’t see that power improving.

He’s fast enough that he’ll beat out some infield hits, lay down bunt singles and do some damage on the base paths, but I can’t see a scenario where his offensive output will ever warrant any sort of praise, even from the most liberal-minded analysts

Defense:

Thankfully for Hechavarria, he’ll only need to hit well enough to bat last in the order to get off the bus and into a major league clubhouse. His skills at short are undeniable, especially his split second reactions. On this night, a ball was hit hard to Hechavarria’s left, which he quickly got in position to field, then took a bad hop a darted up toward his head. He contorted his body in some sort of inhuman position, fielded the ball cleanly and threw out the runner at first. Combine these reactions with his above average speed and he has terrific range. He has soft hands and an above average arm.

My one concern is his arm accuracy. He releases the ball at a weird spot. I can’t really articulate exactly what I saw but I know it didn’t look right and a few balls he threw to first during warmups either sailed on him or landed in the dirt.

Hechavarria’s glove will get him to the majors because he plays a premium defensive position very well. He’s not a future All Star and won’t provide the value you’d expect from someone who signed as big of an amateur contract as he did, but he’ll be a big league shortstop for a decade or so.

Saturday, April 16, 2011

MLB Draft Prospect Scouting Report: Matt Barnes


Team: UConn Huskies


Position: Right Handed Pitcher

Height: 6’4”

Weight: 203lbs

One of the more talked about arms in the upcoming MLB Draft, Matt Barnes has a chance to be one of the first 10 players selected in early June. Barnes is the first amateur player I’ve ever scouted and it is very different to watch college baseball than it is to watch pro, because the players mostly suck, even at the Division 1 level.

Fastball- Barnes throws hard. His 4-seam fastball sits between 92-94mph touching 96 here and there. He also has a 2-seamer that comes in between 89-91mph with noticeable arm-side run. He seemed to like to use that to back-door right handed hitters. He maintains this velocity throughout the game thanks to his lanky, 6’4” frame. While the raw velocity is there the command is not. Barnes was pitching from behind in the count almost incessantly on Friday, as he was unable to throw strike 1. He also refused to challenge hitters inside with the heater, a product of two variables. First, UConn coaches call the pitches, not the battery, so Barnes was at the mercy of the coaches. Second, college pitchers are averse to pitching inside because aluminum bats tend to do more damage with those than wood ones do.

Curveball- A dirty upper 70s curve with 11-7 break, it is Barnes’ best pitch and he knows how to use it. Whether burying it in 2-strike counts, running it away from righties to gets swings and misses, back-dooring it to lefties or even throwing it early in counts to get ahead, Barnes seemed very comfortable using it.

Slider/Cutter- Yuck. In the low 80s, Barnes’ Slitter (hmm…not sure if I like that) is not good. It was so bad that I had trouble recognizing what the hell it was. If you want to pitch at the top of a big league rotation, you need at least 3 viable pitches. The way Barnes develops this (or a changeup, as I’d prefer) is of paramount importance to his future.

Mechanics- Barnes does not repeat his delivery well. I noticed several times his front foot landing in different places in different directions. These inconsistencies are the likely cause of his control issues. Barnes is only 20 and it’s possible he hasn’t fully grown into his 6’4” frame to a point where he has acute control of his extremities. It’s also possible his legs are just weak, tire easily and his delivery gets sloppy as a result. Video and reports on Barnes tend to note he misses up. More often for the start I saw, he was missing away. The arm action is not violent enough to be concerned about, nor is it effortless enough to fawn over.

Whatever team drafts Barnes will have some work to do, but his combination of velocity, pro-ready curveball, size to handle starter workload and bit of projectability won’t let him drop past Milwaukee at #15 overall.

MLB Prospect Scouting Report: Melky Mesa

Team: New York Yankees


Position: Outfield

Height: 6’1”

Weight: 185lbs

From: Dominican Republic (signed in 2003)

Mesa is toolsy, but old. He’s already 24 years old and is only in AA. Let me rephrase that. He’s LISTED at 24 years old. Sometimes these guys from the DR shave a few years off of their real age to get a more lucrative initial deal. Keep those two things in mind as you read.

Offense: The first thing you’ll notice when watching the right handed Mesa hit is his batting stance. It is a straight up theft of Alfonso Soriano’s stance, and Mesa has a similar offensive skill set. Listed at 165lbs just a year ago, Mesa has good power for his still slight frame. He’s hit 50 extra base hits each of the last 2 years (20 Hrs, 20 doubles, 10 triples). He’d have more of them if he hit the ball more often. Mesa’s eye-hand coordination is not good and he struggles mightily to make contact. He had more strikeouts than hits each of the last two years. He’ll never hit for a high average or get on base more than 33% of the time, just because he swings and misses too often, even when pitches are hittable. Mesa has plus speed.

Defense: A fine defender thanks to his speed and above average arm, Mesa can play any of the three outfield positions and play them well.

Overall, Mesa has enough useful tools that he’ll be a useful MLB bench player (think an extremely poor man’s Chris Young) providing late game defensive upgrade and pinch running value.

MLB Prospect Scouting Report: Austin Romine

Team: New York Yankees


Position: Catcher

Height: 6’1”

Weight: 190lbs

From: El Toro High School in Lake Forest, California (and round of 200 draft)

Romine is stuck in a strange limbo in the Yankees system. Behind Jesus Montero in terms of development (and potential) and has the much more talented (but very young/raw) Gary Sanchez breathing down his neck from Single-A. Romine will more than likely become a piece of a trade package for a starting pitcher before mid-July.

Offense: Romine has plus raw power that you won’t see by looking at his numbers because Trenton (AA) is such a difficult environment in which to hit. His swing mechanics are complicated, especially from the waist down, which throw off his timing here and there, which could make him prone to lengthy slumps. He won’t hit for a high average as a result. His plate discipline is lacking. He has below average speed.

Defense: Fan opinion seems to be that Romine is good defensively, likely because he and Montero (who couldn’t catch a cold, or syphilis in a Vietnamese whore house) are always compared to one another. I can say for sure (I’ve now seen Romine at least 5 separate times) that he is not. His receiving skills are poor and his game calling skills are about average. On the other hand, his arm is very strong, though it can be inaccurate at times and his transfer is slow. Romine could probably play left field, but his bat isn’t good enough to profile out there.

Good catchers are hard to come by. Romine will likely be an average everyday catcher for a handful of years before becoming a backup with some pop (think John Buck). All this will likely take place with an organization other than the Yankees.

Saturday, April 2, 2011

Insert Suidae Pun Here: A quick Lehigh Valley IronPigs Preview

Insert Suidae Pun Here


The 2011 IronPigs season is upon us and it’s highly likely for the organization to experience the same sort of success it’s enjoyed over the first few years of its existence (I’m talking about financial success, not success on the field). Aside from the incessant pig-monikered products and events, there has been little to complain about at Coca-Cola Park except for the product on the field. Will that change this year? Let’s have a brief look at the IronPigs opening rosters….



Pitchers:

Vance Worley- One of the few Pigs who might provide the Phillies with mentionable value during his career, Worley was a 3rd round pick in 2008 out of Long Beach State. His fastball has MLB average velocity (88-90mph, touching as high as 93 here and there) with a bit of armside run. He also throws a low 80s slider which grades out as average, a low-mid 70s curveball which shows flashes of viability but is inconsistent, and a below average changeup (79-83mph) on which he often noticeably slows his arm speed. He’s got #5 starter upside if he can refine his secondary stuff, especially the changeup to get lefties out. At 23 years of age, he doesn’t have much projection left. He’s much more likely to contribute long term in a middle relief role, where a lighter work load might allow him let loose and see a jump in his fastball velocity.

Drew Carpenter- Carpenter has anchored the LV rotation for the past couple years but his stuff just isn’t good enough to play in the big leagues. He’s moved to the bullpen in hopes of carving out some sort of role for himself in the majors. In doing so, he has scrapped his curveball and changeup and will pitch exclusively with his fastball, splitter and slider out of the bullpen. The splitter will likely be a tertiary pitch for Carp, used primarily against lefties. It’ll be interesting to see if Carpenter’s stuff plays up out of the ‘pen. He has Chad Durbin-type upside if his slider improves.

Scott Mathieson- Mathieson has been in pro baseball for 9 seasons. He is now 27. Despite this, he remains a favorite of the organization and is the oldest guy to retain the “prospect” label I can ever remember. The reasons for this are well known; Mathieson had two Tommy John surgeries and an ulnar nerve relocation over a three year span. When pitchers come back from TJ, the first thing to come back is the velocity and Mathieson has that, sitting from 94-96 with his fastball and touching 99. Other aspects of pitching, like season long stamina, take a little longer to return. Mathieson’s velocity was down in the low 90s late in the year, which is a big reason why he was kicked around in his brief MLB stint. He should be ready for a full season’s workload this year. His secondary stuff is average and that should improve this year as continues to come back from injury. I like him to eventually ascend to a high leverage spot in the Phillies bullpen by the end of the year.

Mike Zagurski/Mike Stutes/Michael Schwimmer- Terrific AAA relievers. May get call ups here and there for depth/injury. Have some upside because they’re a little younger than….

Brian Bass, Eddie Bonine, Nate Bump, Jason Grilli, Juan Perez, Dan Meyer- Organizational players.

Catchers:

Dane Sardinha- Sardinha was on the 40 man last year but isn’t as this is being written. The Phils have only 2 catchers on the 40 man roster right now and I’d expect Sardinha to be the first guy called upon should either Chooch or Brian Schneider get injured. He’s a fine defensive catcher but can’t hit.

Erik Kratz- Kratz had a brief major league stint with the Pirates last year and is likely to bounce around the minors with injury induced MLB time here and there.

Infielders:

Delwyn Young/Josh Barfield/Ronnie Beliard/Kevin Frandsen/Jeff Larish- The Phillies are hoping one of these guys can have some sort of renaissance and soften what looks to be a serious, season long blow at second base. Young and Barfield can also play the outfield.

Outfielders:

Brandon Moss- Moss was part of the 3 way trade that sent Manny Ramirez from Boston to LA a few years ago. At the time he was thought to be a decent prospect who would likely become an average major leaguer. It hasn’t happened.

Rich Thompson- One of the nicest dudes on the planet, Thompson will lead the International League in autographs signed again this year.

Cory Sullivan- A local guy (Wexford, PA) with some speed.



Overall the IronPig roster is underwhelming. I think they’ll do well in the standings but other than Mathieson and, to an extent, Worley, will be boring to watch. Triple-A has become a group of emergency replacement level players with little ceiling. Many top prospects will skip Triple-A altogether nowadays.